GO Ahead Eagles
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
The model makes it 51% GO Ahead Eagles, 25% draw, 24% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: GO Ahead Eagles 2.30, Sparta Rotterdam 1.19.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 51% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
GO Ahead Eagles
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen20 September 2026
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
- L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
- W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
What these results say
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles.
- Sparta Rotterdam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 3 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 23 August 2025GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 February 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 18 December 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker
- 15 September 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 21 January 2024Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam
GO Ahead Eagles
- S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
- V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists
- S. Sigurðarson3 goals1 assists
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
GO Ahead Eagles carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.49 for Sparta Rotterdam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.19 for Sparta Rotterdam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.90 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.68 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GO Ahead Eagles a 0.4% chance of the title and Sparta Rotterdam 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles against 1.19 for Sparta Rotterdam. GO Ahead Eagles's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.39 for Sparta Rotterdam.