GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: GO Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% GO Ahead Eagles, 22% draw, 20% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
GO Ahead Eagles at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. HaugG
- 2A. SampstedD
- 25G. van ZwamD
- 4J. KramerD
- 5D. JamesD
- 21M. MeulensteenM
- 8E. LinthorstM
- 10S. TengstedtM
- 16V. EdvardsenM
- 17M. SurayM
- 9S. SigurðarsonF
- 29E. FlatakerF
- 27Tomas GalvezD
- 30T. HullemanG
- 6T. JukićD
- 18R. MargaretF
- 23T. BaetenF
- 3G. NauberD
- 34Y. RahmouniM
- 11O. SivertsenF
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6N. VerschurenM
- 7Robin van CruijsenM
- 8J. ToornstraM
- 10Cedric HatenboerM
- 11I. BabadiM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 15G. VianelloD
- 17C. TerhoF
- 18A. RoaldsøyM
- 12B. ReithD
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 30P. KuiperG
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 20F. BednarekG
Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen20 September 2026
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
- L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
- W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
What these results say
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles.
- Sparta Rotterdam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 3 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 23 August 2025GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 February 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 18 December 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker
- 15 September 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt92
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GO Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for GO Ahead Eagles at 58% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Milan Zonneveld 23' for Sparta Rotterdam, Mathis Suray 50' for GO Ahead Eagles, Milan Zonneveld (own goal) 60' for GO Ahead Eagles, Lushendry Martes 61' for Sparta Rotterdam, Søren Tengstedt 75' for GO Ahead Eagles, Casper Terho 84' for Sparta Rotterdam. On expected goals it finished 1.33–2.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave GO Ahead Eagles a 7.9% chance to finish in the top four: 8.7% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
For Sparta Rotterdam the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.2% going in: 27.1% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.6%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 22% / 20%: the biggest move is GO Ahead Eagles's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- GO Ahead Eagles win58%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Sparta Rotterdam win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.