PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Before kick-off the model made it 84% PSV Eindhoven, 10% draw, 6% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 84%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32M. KovarG
- 5I. PerisicD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JuniorD
- 10P. WannerM
- 31N. FernandezM
- 20G. TilM
- 21S. MijnansM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 9R. PepiF
- 1N. OlijG
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 27D. ManF
- 25K. SildilliaD
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 3Y. GasiorowskiD
- 33E. BasseyD
- 14A. PleaF
- 35J. van den BergM
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 2S. WylinD
- 12I. PintoD
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 28J. HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 5Y. OukiliM
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 10O. ter Haar RomenyF
- 33KaylenG
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 9A. DescotteF
- 20E. MichutM
- 15N. de GrootD
- 38M. GbemouM
- 39G. BuyukhanM
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard
- 17 January 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 31 October 2025PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 22 September 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 12 May 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Fortuna Sittard
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven and Fortuna Sittard drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for PSV Eindhoven at 84% and given a draw 10%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 10 matches like this one. The goals: O. ter Haar Romeny 42' for Fortuna Sittard, R. Flamingo 55' for PSV Eindhoven, N. Fernandez 74' for PSV Eindhoven, E. Michut 90' for Fortuna Sittard. On expected goals it finished 2.30–1.01.