PSV Eindhoven
vs
Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 84% PSV Eindhoven, 10% draw, 6% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 3.31, Fortuna Sittard 0.84.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard
- 17 January 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 31 October 2025PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 22 September 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 12 May 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 21 October 2023PSV Eindhoven 3–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
A clear gap in the ratings
PSV Eindhoven carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.47 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.31 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.84 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PSV Eindhoven rate 1.25 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.65 and 1.40.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.31 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven against 0.84 for Fortuna Sittard. PSV Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 1.25/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.4 for Fortuna Sittard.