AZ Alkmaar
vs
ADO Den Haag
The model makes it 41% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 35% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.69, ADO Den Haag 1.57.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag
- 16 January 2021AZ Alkmaar 2–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 25 October 2020ADO Den Haag 2–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 29 August 2020ADO Den Haag 1–0 AZ AlkmaarFriendlies Clubs
- 7 March 2020AZ Alkmaar 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 22 September 2019ADO Den Haag 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 13 April 2019AZ Alkmaar 2–3 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AZ Alkmaar carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.91 for ADO Den Haag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.57 for ADO Den Haag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AZ Alkmaar rate 0.80 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADO Den Haag rate 1.23 and 1.12.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 1.57 for ADO Den Haag. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.12 for ADO Den Haag.