Clermont Foot
vs
Reims
The model makes it 55% Clermont Foot, 20% draw, 25% Reims — fair odds of 1.82, 5.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Clermont Foot 2.40, Reims 1.62.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clermont Foot | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 37 |
| 6 | Reims | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Reims
- 30 January 2026Clermont Foot 0–1 ReimsLigue 2
- 23 September 2025Reims 4–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 28 April 2024Clermont Foot 4–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 20 August 2023Reims 2–0 Clermont FootLigue 1
- 30 April 2023Clermont Foot 1–0 ReimsLigue 1
- 14 August 2022Reims 2–4 Clermont FootLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Clermont Foot carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.97 for Reims. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Clermont Foot and 1.62 for Reims. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Clermont Foot rate 1.05 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Reims rate 1.43 and 1.21.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Reims, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for Clermont Foot against 1.62 for Reims. Clermont Foot's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.43/1.21 for Reims.