7 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cambuur vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Cambuur 0-4 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cambuur, 23% draw, 39% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.63, 4.35 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Excelsior at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur0%Draw1%Excelsior99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽I. Yegoianassist: G. de Regt
31'
⚽N. Naujoksassist: I. Yegoian
42'
⚽D. Gardenassist: S. Janssen
🔁R. Muldersout: M. Costarelli
46'
🔁R. van de Pavertout: S. Bouhoudane
46'
🔁L. Jettenout: E. Apkakou
66'
69'
⚽N. Naujoksassist: S. Janssen
74'
🔁N. Martensout: C. Widell
74'
🔁D. Gardenout: N. Groen
75'
🔁I. Yegoianout: A. Sliti
🔁S. Vinkout: W. van der Goot
81'
81'
🔁S. Janssenout: O. Turay
85'
🔁G. de Regtout: I. Silva Timas
90+4'
•Ilano Silva Timas

Match stats — Cambuur vs Excelsior

46%Possession54%
11Shots18
2On target9
5Corners8
0.7xG3.35

Goals against chances

Cambuur0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Excelsior4 from 3.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-3-3
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 14R. van de PavertM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 29I. HenstraF
  • 9S. VinkF
  • 11I. HamacheF
Substitutes
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 24M. Kalisvaart
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 18W. van der HeideM
  • 33B. VogelzangD
  • 13N. BinderF
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
Coach: Johan Plat
Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 17N. MartensD
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 10N. NaujoksM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 8I. YegoianF
  • 19D. Garden
  • 11G. de RegtF
Substitutes
  • 16C. BiaiG
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 5S. HenderikxD
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 24G. CairoM
  • 22O. TurayD
Coach: Ruben den Uil

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambuur124352527-215
15Excelsior123271629-1311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Excelsior

  • 4 July 2026Excelsior 3–2 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 August 2025Cambuur 0–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 January 2025Cambuur 1–0 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
  • 26 October 2024Excelsior 0–1 CambuurEerste Divisie
  • 19 March 2023Excelsior 4–1 CambuurEredivisie

The full Cambuur vs Excelsior record →

Leading scorers: Cambuur and Excelsior

Cambuur

GoalsAssists

  • R. El Arguioui62
  • I. Hamache53
  • N. Binder52

Excelsior

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Excelsior won 4–0 at Cambuur. The model had made a win for Excelsior its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: I. Yegoian 17' for Excelsior, N. Naujoks 31' for Excelsior, D. Garden 42' for Excelsior, N. Naujoks 69' for Excelsior. On expected goals it finished 0.70–3.35.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.