Cambuur
vs
Excelsior
The model makes it 38% Cambuur, 23% draw, 39% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.63, 4.35 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Cambuur 1.75, Excelsior 1.76.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Excelsior
- 4 July 2026Excelsior 3–2 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 2 August 2025Cambuur 0–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- 17 January 2025Cambuur 1–0 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 26 October 2024Excelsior 0–1 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 19 March 2023Excelsior 4–1 CambuurEredivisie
- 6 August 2022Cambuur 0–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cambuur carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.72 for Excelsior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Cambuur and 1.76 for Excelsior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambuur rate 0.80 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Excelsior rate 0.90 and 1.16.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Cambuur against 1.76 for Excelsior. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.16 for Excelsior.