Boulogne
vs
Nancy
The model makes it 28% Boulogne, 23% draw, 49% Nancy — fair odds of 3.57, 4.35 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Boulogne 1.38, Nancy 1.91.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Boulogne | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 14 | Nancy | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Boulogne vs Nancy
- 20 March 2026Boulogne 0–0 NancyLigue 2
- 15 August 2025Nancy 1–0 BoulogneLigue 2
- 28 February 2025Nancy 0–2 BoulogneNational 1
- 27 September 2024Boulogne 1–1 NancyNational 1
The two sides
Boulogne carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.74 for Nancy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Boulogne and 1.91 for Nancy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boulogne rate 0.60 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nancy rate 0.98 and 1.22.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nancy the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Boulogne against 1.91 for Nancy. Boulogne's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.22 for Nancy.