PSV Eindhoven
vs
Feyenoord
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Feyenoord
The model makes it 47% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 30% Feyenoord — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.17, Feyenoord 1.67.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Feyenoord are top on 20 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Heerenveen.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to AZ Alkmaar.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Feyenoord.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
Feyenoord
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
- W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
- W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven won 4 of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 19 |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PSV Eindhoven
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 51% today
Feyenoord
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 33% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord
- 1 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 3–0 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 26 October 2025Feyenoord 2–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 11 May 2025Feyenoord 2–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 5 February 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–0 FeyenoordKNVB Beker
- 22 December 2024PSV Eindhoven 3–0 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 4 August 2024PSV Eindhoven 4–4 FeyenoordSuper Cup
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til50
- S. Mijnans41
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- G. Zechiël54
- Nacho Ferri51
- A. Hadj-Moussa51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PSV Eindhoven carry a model rating of 7.11 against 7.08 for Feyenoord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.67 for Feyenoord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PSV Eindhoven rate 1.48 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Feyenoord rate 1.26 and 0.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Feyenoord, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PSV Eindhoven a 51.4% chance of the title and Feyenoord 33%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven against 1.67 for Feyenoord. PSV Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 1.48/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.8 for Feyenoord.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PSV Eindhoven at home · Feyenoord away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PSV EindhovenFeyenoord
PSV Eindhoven are 1st after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Feyenoord are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PSV Eindhoven 8, Feyenoord 8.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Feyenoord have let in 2 there.
Feyenoord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
PSV Eindhoven
- vs Willem II31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 88%
- vs Club Brugge KV4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at Cambuur8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 70%
Feyenoord
- vs Fortuna Sittard31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 71%
- vs Inter3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.