Preston
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Preston 1–2 Sheffield Utd
The model makes it 28% Preston, 27% draw, 45% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Preston 1.18, Sheffield Utd 1.65.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Edge to Sheffield Utd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Preston's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Sheffield Utd's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Preston are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Sheffield Utd are 11th on 15 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Preston have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Wrexham.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Utd 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Sheffield Utd 2–3 Preston.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preston vs Sheffield Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Utd at 45% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Preston vs Sheffield Utd
Preston
- L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026
- L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
Sheffield Utd
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
- L2-3away to Portsmouth14 October 2026
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
What these results say
- Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Sheffield Utd
- 25 April 2026Sheffield Utd 2–3 PrestonChampionship
- 24 October 2025Preston 3–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 8 March 2025Sheffield Utd 1–0 PrestonChampionship
- 9 August 2024Preston 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 29 April 2023Sheffield Utd 4–1 PrestonChampionship
- 17 September 2022Preston 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and Sheffield Utd
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Preston carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.58 for Sheffield Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Preston and 1.65 for Sheffield Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preston rate 0.58 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Utd rate 0.78 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preston a 0% chance of the title and Sheffield Utd 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Preston against 1.65 for Sheffield Utd. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.35 for Sheffield Utd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preston at home · Sheffield Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PrestonSheffield Utd
Preston are 24th after 11 Championship matches (between 21st and 24th so far); Sheffield Utd are 11th after 11 (between 8th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Preston 11, Sheffield Utd 11.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 3 there.
Sheffield Utd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Preston have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Preston
- vs Southampton7 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
- at West Ham21 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
- at Cardiff24 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Sheffield Utd
- at Charlton7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Watford21 Nov · Championshipwin 56%
- vs Southampton24 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.