Portsmouth
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
Our model says: Portsmouth 0–1 Swansea
The model makes it 32% Portsmouth, 31% draw, 37% Swansea — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.06, Swansea 1.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
Edge to Swansea: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Portsmouth's rating is built from 56 Championship matches and Swansea's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Portsmouth are 13th on 14 points from 10 games; Swansea are top on 23 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Norwich.
- Swansea have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to West Ham.
- Last 4 meetings: Swansea 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portsmouth vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 37% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portsmouth vs Swansea
Portsmouth
- W1-0away to Norwich17 October 2026
- W3-2Sheffield Utd14 October 2026
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
Swansea
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
What these results say
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Swansea
- 10 March 2026Portsmouth 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 9 December 2025Swansea 1–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 1 January 2025Portsmouth 4–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 30 November 2024Swansea 2–2 PortsmouthChampionship
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Swansea
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.68 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Portsmouth and 1.17 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 0.67 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 0.73 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portsmouth a 0.5% chance of the title and Swansea 11.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.17 for Swansea. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.05 for Swansea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portsmouth at home · Swansea away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PortsmouthSwansea
Portsmouth are 13th after 10 Championship matches (between 9th and 22nd so far); Swansea are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Portsmouth 10, Swansea 11.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Portsmouth have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Portsmouth
- vs Stoke City7 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at Bolton21 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Swansea
- at Birmingham7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs West Brom21 Nov · Championshipwin 45%
- at Middlesbrough24 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.