Watford
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 1–0 Lincoln
The model makes it 37% Watford, 29% draw, 34% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Watford 1.28, Lincoln 1.18.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
A tight game: Watford and Lincoln are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Watford's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Lincoln's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Watford are 20th on 11 points from 11 games; Lincoln are 18th on 12 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Charlton.
- Lincoln are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Watford vs Lincoln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Watford at 37% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Watford vs Lincoln
Watford
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
- L1-5away to Cardiff13 October 2026
- L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
Lincoln
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
- L0-6West Ham14 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
What these results say
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Watford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Watford carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.41 for Lincoln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Watford and 1.18 for Lincoln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Watford rate 0.56 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lincoln rate 0.62 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lincoln, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Watford the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Watford against 1.18 for Lincoln. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.51 for Lincoln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Watford at home · Lincoln away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WatfordLincoln
Watford are 18th after 11 Championship matches (between 6th and 22nd so far); Lincoln are 16th after 11 (between 8th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Watford 11, Lincoln 11.
Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Watford have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Watford
- vs Middlesbrough7 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- at Sheffield Utd21 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
- vs Blackburn25 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
Lincoln
- at QPR7 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Wrexham21 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Charlton24 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.