West Brom
vs
Southampton
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Brom 0–1 Southampton
The model makes it 29% West Brom, 30% draw, 41% Southampton — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: West Brom 1.03, Southampton 1.31.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Edge to Southampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. West Brom's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Southampton's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- West Brom are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; Southampton are 7th on 17 points from 11 games — Championship.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Blackburn.
- Southampton are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Bolton.
- Last 6 meetings: Southampton 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended West Brom 1–1 Southampton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Brom vs Southampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 41% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into West Brom vs Southampton
West Brom
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham13 October 2026
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
Southampton
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Norwich14 October 2026
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
What these results say
- West Brom conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs West Brom
Southampton and West Brom have met 6 times in the records we hold, Southampton has won 4 of them to West Brom's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at West Brom on 11 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 |
| West Brom | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Mar 2026
ChampionshipWest Brom 1–1 Southampton - 9 Dec 2025
ChampionshipSouthampton 3–2 West Brom - 17 May 2024
ChampionshipSouthampton 3–1 West Brom - 12 May 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–0 Southampton - 16 Feb 2024
ChampionshipWest Brom 0–2 Southampton - 11 Nov 2023
ChampionshipSouthampton 2–1 West Brom
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| West Brom | 0.65 | 1.18 |
Leading scorers: West Brom and Southampton
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price42
- J. Morgan33
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
West Brom carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.79 for Southampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for West Brom and 1.31 for Southampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Brom rate 0.65 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Southampton rate 0.93 and 1.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour West Brom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 1.6% chance of the title and Southampton 18%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for West Brom against 1.31 for Southampton. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.05 for Southampton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
West Brom at home · Southampton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
West BromSouthampton
West Brom are 4th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Southampton are 4th after 11 (between 4th and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Brom 11, Southampton 11.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); West Brom have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
West Brom
- vs Millwall7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Swansea21 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- at Bolton25 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Southampton
- at Preston7 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
- vs Derby21 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Sheffield Utd24 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.