QPR
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
Our model says: QPR 0–1 Burnley
The model makes it 34% QPR, 28% draw, 38% Burnley — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: QPR 1.26, Burnley 1.37.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
Edge to Burnley: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. QPR's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Burnley's from 38 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- QPR are 9th on 17 points from 11 games; Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 11 games — Championship.
- QPR have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Burnley have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Wolves.
- Last 6 meetings: Burnley 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2025, ended QPR 0–5 Burnley.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: QPR vs Burnley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 38% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into QPR vs Burnley
QPR
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
- W4-1Derby14 October 2026
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
Burnley
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
- D2-2Charlton13 October 2026
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
What these results say
- QPR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs QPR
Burnley and QPR have met 6 times in the records we hold, Burnley has won 3 of them to QPR's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Burnley won the last one 5–0 on 26 Apr 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| QPR | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2025
ChampionshipQPR 0–5 Burnley - 26 Oct 2024
ChampionshipBurnley 0–0 QPR - 22 Apr 2023
ChampionshipBurnley 1–2 QPR - 11 Dec 2022
ChampionshipQPR 0–3 Burnley - 2 May 2016
ChampionshipBurnley 1–0 QPR - 12 Dec 2015
ChampionshipQPR 0–0 Burnley
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
The two sides
QPR carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.69 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for QPR and 1.37 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
QPR rate 0.72 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.85 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour QPR, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives QPR a 0.3% chance of the title and Burnley 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for QPR against 1.37 for Burnley. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.16 for Burnley.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
QPR at home · Burnley away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
QPRBurnley
QPR are 7th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Burnley are 21st after 11 (between 10th and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: QPR 11, Burnley 11.
QPR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Burnley have let in 2 there.
Burnley score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); QPR have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
QPR
- vs Lincoln7 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
- at Millwall21 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- at Norwich24 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Burnley
- at Cardiff7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Blackburn22 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Birmingham25 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.