10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 35% St. Louis City — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portland Timbers at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers5%Draw91%St. Louis City4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Rafael Navarro
🔁D. Da Costaout: D. Chara
18'
31'
D. Polvara
⚽K. Velde
32'
36'
J. Orozco
45+2'
T. Totland
46'
🔁J. Orozcoout: L. MacNaughton
51'
⚽Rafael Navarro
E. Miller
58'
65'
🔁D. Polvaraout: F. Fall
65'
🔁S. Jeongout: S. Becher
🔁E. Millerout: R. Hernandez
65'
🔁A. Lassiterout: Antony
65'
67'
Rafael Navarro
80'
🔁Rafael Santosout: M. Joyner
80'
🔁A. Matanout: C. Holse
🔁K. Millerout: I. Smith
81'
🔁J. Ortizout: O. Fernandez
81'
⚽K. Veldeassist: C. Bassett
89'
89'
🔁Rafael Navarroout: D. Downs
🔁V. Janssenout: G. Guerra
90'

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

51%Possession49%
16Shots10
3On target4
9Corners2
0.92xG1.86

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers2 from 0.92 xGmore than the chances were worth
St. Louis City2 from 1.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 12R. HernandezD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 11AntonyF
Coach: Jack Cassidy
St. Louis City 3-1-4-2
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 23A. MatanM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 20Rafael SantosM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 27F. FallD
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 7T. OstrakM
  • 59M. JoynerM
  • 42D. DownsF
  • 11S. BecherF
Coach: Yoann Damet

Form going into Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
  • W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026

St. Louis City

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
  • D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
  • W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
  • W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portland Timbers32117145760-340
3St. Louis City3214995847+1151

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City

  • 13 July 2025St. Louis City 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 8 June 2025Portland Timbers 2–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 25 August 2024Portland Timbers 4–4 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and St. Louis City

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Portland Timbers at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rafael Navarro 1' for St. Louis City, K. Velde 32' for Portland Timbers, Rafael Navarro 51' for St. Louis City, K. Velde 89' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 0.92–1.86.

How the call on Portland Timbers v St. Louis City has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Portland Timbers win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. St. Louis City win35%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.