Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles FC, 29% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 33A. LongD
- 91Nkosi TafariD
- 45K. NielsenD
- 66M. ChoiniereM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 22J. TerryM
- 23Y. CheberkoM
- 99D. BouangaM
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 31C. CarterG
- 14S. PalenciaD
- 44C. DiazD
- 6Igor JesusM
- 19T. BoydF
- 9A. SiebF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 90T. MihalicF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 37M. SofoM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 7C. CowellF
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 92D. NelichF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 8D. RuizM
- 60S. Kone
- 17C. HarperF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 91M. JimenezF
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
- 10 September 2026Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 21 April 2024Los Angeles FC 2–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2022Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 12 August 2019Los Angeles FC 4–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 August 2018New York Red Bulls 2–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga13 goals5 assists
New York Red Bulls
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.