Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles FC, 29% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 33A. LongD
- 91Nkosi TafariD
- 45K. NielsenD
- 66M. ChoiniereM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 22J. TerryM
- 23Y. CheberkoM
- 99D. BouangaM
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 31C. CarterG
- 14S. PalenciaD
- 44C. DiazD
- 6Igor JesusM
- 19T. BoydF
- 9A. SiebF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 90T. MihalicF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 37M. SofoM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 7C. CowellF
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 92D. NelichF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 8D. RuizM
- 60S. Kone
- 17C. HarperF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 91M. JimenezF
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids20 August 2026
- L0-1San Diego16 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles FC had two goals or fewer.
- New York Red Bulls did not win any of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 47 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
- 21 April 2024Los Angeles FC 2–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2022Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 12 August 2019Los Angeles FC 4–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 August 2018New York Red Bulls 2–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Los Angeles FC beat New York Red Bulls 2–0. The model had made a win for Los Angeles FC its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Terry 21' for Los Angeles FC, A. Sieb 90+6' for Los Angeles FC. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.43.
How the call on Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Los Angeles FC win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- New York Red Bulls win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.