San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% San Diego, 30% draw, 27% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 21B. DukeM
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 94C. BakambuF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 1A. GunnG
- 5D. MunieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 17J. JasinskiM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 87Vitor CostaM
- 10N. TsakirisF
- 9L. JovanovicF
- 19P. JuddF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 23E. LowenM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 28B. KikanovicF
Form going into San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
What these results say
- San Diego scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 62 | -6 | 35 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 5 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 24 January 2026San Diego 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2025San Diego 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 August 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 56 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Jose Earthquakes won 3–2 at San Diego. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 43% and given a win for San Jose Earthquakes 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Tsakiris 3' for San Jose Earthquakes, P. Judd 12' for San Jose Earthquakes, O. Bouda 35' for San Jose Earthquakes, A. Dreyer 42' for San Diego, C. Bakambu (penalty) 90+4' for San Diego. Sent off: dos Santos CJ (San Diego) 80', M. Floriani (San Jose Earthquakes) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.77–2.06.
How the call on San Diego v San Jose Earthquakes has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is San Diego's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- San Diego win43%▼ −5
- Draw30%▲ +3
- San Jose Earthquakes win27%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.