San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% San Diego, 30% draw, 27% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 8O. ValakariF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 21B. DukeM
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 94C. BakambuF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 1A. GunnG
- 5D. MunieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 17J. JasinskiM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 87Vitor CostaM
- 10N. TsakirisF
- 9L. JovanovicF
- 19P. JuddF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 23E. LowenM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 7O. BoudaF
- 28B. KikanovicF
Form going into San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
- L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 10 September 2026San Diego 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 5 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 24 January 2026San Diego 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2025San Diego 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 August 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.