Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 2-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Houston Dynamo, 30% draw, 27% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake
Line-ups
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 3Antonio CarlosD
- 21F. NegriD
- 30A. BouzatM
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 24I. AliyuM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 33V. SilvaD
- 34A. ReschD
- 18D. SamassekouM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 22M. AranaM
- 37G. RiveraD
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 23D. McGuireF
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 3K. HenryD
- 21J. J. AriasD
- 4L. EngelD
- 2D. YedlinM
- 25C. GuskeM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 10D. LunaF
- 13J. ShokalookF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 98A. KatranisD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 77R. MesallesD
- 30O. Anderson
- 34L. MoisaM
- 76L. O'Gara
- 12S. LobjanidzeM
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
- D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
- L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
Real Salt Lake
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake
- 10 September 2026Houston Dynamo 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 14 May 2026Real Salt Lake 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2025Real Salt Lake 1–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 August 2024Houston Dynamo 3–0 Real Salt LakeLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.