10 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Houston Dynamo 2-1 Real Salt Lake.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Houston Dynamo, 30% draw, 27% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Houston Dynamo at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo97%Draw3%Real Salt Lake0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
D. Luna
33'
J. J. Arias
46'
🔁L. Engelout: P. Quinton
H. Herrera
54'
⚽Guilhermeassist: L. Ennali
57'
68'
C. Guske
🔁A. Bouzatout: D. Samassekou
69'
70'
🔁D. Yedlinout: A. Katranis
70'
🔁D. Lunaout: Lineker Rodrigues
70'
🔁J. Shokalookout: S. Lobjanidze
76'
⚽S. Lobjanidzeassist: Lineker Rodrigues
🔁I. Aliyuout: D. McGuire
80'
🔁H. Herreraout: M. Arana
80'
⚽M. Boguszassist: Guilherme
87'
🔁L. Ennaliout: D. Holmes
90+1'
🔁Guilhermeout: N. Markanich
90+1'
90+1'
🔁C. Guskeout: O. Anderson
90+5'
P. Quinton

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

51%Possession49%
12Shots9
6On target4
1Corners4

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-4-2
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 6ArturM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 24I. AliyuM
  • 19M. BoguszF
  • 20GuilhermeF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 33V. SilvaD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 37G. RiveraD
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
Coach: Ben Olsen
Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 3K. HenryD
  • 21J. J. AriasD
  • 4L. EngelD
  • 2D. YedlinM
  • 25C. GuskeM
  • 92N. CaliskanM
  • 8J. SanabriaM
  • 39A. HezarkhaniF
  • 10D. LunaF
  • 13J. ShokalookF
Substitutes
  • 31M. StajduharG
  • 98A. KatranisD
  • 26P. QuintonD
  • 77R. MesallesD
  • 30O. Anderson
  • 34L. MoisaM
  • 76L. O'Gara
  • 12S. LobjanidzeM
  • 70Lineker RodriguesF
Coach: Pablo Mastroeni

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

Houston Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
  • D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Vancouver Whitecaps20 August 2026
  • W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026

Real Salt Lake

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
  • L3-4FC Dallas20 August 2026
  • D1-1Minnesota United FC16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Houston Dynamo had two goals or fewer.
  • Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Houston Dynamo3214994239+351
9Real Salt Lake32126145049+142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake

  • 14 May 2026Real Salt Lake 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2025Real Salt Lake 1–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 15 September 2024Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 6 August 2024Houston Dynamo 3–0 Real Salt LakeLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans144

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Houston Dynamo beat Real Salt Lake 2–1. The model had made a win for Houston Dynamo its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Guilherme 57' for Houston Dynamo, S. Lobjanidze 76' for Real Salt Lake, M. Bogusz 87' for Houston Dynamo.

How the call on Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Houston Dynamo's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Houston Dynamo win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Real Salt Lake win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.