Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fenerbahçe, 26% draw, 48% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
AS Roma
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
AS Roma
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.