Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fenerbahçe, 26% draw, 48% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 18M. MüldürD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 15N. AkéD
- 3A. BrownD
- 91N. KantéM
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 11M. GreenwoodF
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 14Y. DemirD
- 34M. GünokG
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 22L. MercanD
- 77O. MimoviÄD
- 45N. DorgelesF
- 21K. Peprah OppongD
- 99M. SvilarG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 2D. RenschM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 17M. KonéM
- 43WesleyM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 18M. SouléM
- 14D. MalenF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 15M. de RoonM
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 95P. GolliniG
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 77E. LulliD
- 20N. MolinaD
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
AS Roma
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and AS Roma
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- Talisca40
- M. Greenwood32
AS Roma
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fenerbahçe and AS Roma drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Cristante 39' for AS Roma, Archie Brown 48' for Fenerbahçe.
How the call on Fenerbahçe v AS Roma has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Fenerbahçe win26%▼ −4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- AS Roma win48%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.