Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Gagra 1-1 Torpedo Kutaisi.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Gagra, 28% draw, 23% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gagra at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Line-ups
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 4V. ArsicD
- 6M. TsintsadzeM
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21A. Peikrishvili
- 25WandersonM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 35A. Dmitrievich
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 9D. MujiriF
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 1O. GoshadzeG
- 15L. KupravaD
- 4M. SimicD
- 22D. BukiaD
- 33M. StamatovD
- 8M. ItrakM
- 7V. MamuchashviliM
- 17N. LominadzeM
- 14Felipe PiresF
- 35D. DeisadzeM
- 9K. AndricF
- 31F. KljajicG
- 5T. NadaraiaD
- 13G. KatkovD
- 19D. PertaiaM
- 20D. SkorupM
- 24L. LatsabidzeD
- 25G. GergedavaM
- 29M. ChitaishviliM
- 36L. PridonishviliF
Form going into Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 30 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gagra and Torpedo Kutaisi
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gagra and Torpedo Kutaisi drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gagra at 49% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Z. Tchavtchanidze (own goal) 21' for Torpedo Kutaisi, G. Goshteliani 74' for Gagra. Sent off: Mate Tsintsadze (Gagra) 87'.
How the call on Gagra v Torpedo Kutaisi has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Gagra's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Gagra win49%▲ +8
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Torpedo Kutaisi win23%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.