10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Walsall League Two prediction & result

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Walsall.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 33% Walsall — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fleetwood Town at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fleetwood Town4%Draw93%Walsall3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

48'
Sven Sprangler
R. Bennett
54'
⚽Ronan Coughlanassist: Lewis McCann
61'
65'
🔁Ryan Leakout: Courtney Alphonso Clarke
65'
🔁Sven Spranglerout: Charlie Crew
Harrison Neal
74'
76'
Reece Smith
Lewis McCann
76'
🔁Ronan Coughlanout: Aaron Loupalo-Bi
78'
Mark Helm
80'
81'
🔁Declan Skuraout: Elicha Ahui
82'
🔁Lewis Simperout: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
82'
⚽Aaron Pressleyassist: Andrew Dallas
🔁Ched Evansout: Will davies
89'
90+1'
Isaac Moore

Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Walsall

46%Possession54%
17Shots8
7On target2
7Corners1
1.63xG0.89

Goals against chances

Fleetwood Town1 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Walsall1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. LynchG
  • 26S. RooneyD
  • 6R. BennettD
  • 5F. PotterD
  • 4H. NealM
  • 14L. McCannM
  • 10M. HelmM
  • 15A. MurphyM
  • 24Jake Thomas BattyM
  • 17C. EvansF
  • 19R. CoughlanF
Substitutes
  • 29R. CirinoD
  • 9W. DaviesF
  • 36J. DempseyD
  • 16Conor HaugheyD
  • 20A. Loupalo-BiF
  • 22J. PradicG
  • 28J. RobertsonM
Coach: M. Lawlor
Walsall 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WardG
  • 25D. SkuraD
  • 4J. ConnollyD
  • 26R. LeakD
  • 3M. HancockD
  • 15Isaac MooreM
  • 6S. SpranglerM
  • 10L. SimperM
  • 9A. DallasM
  • 11R. SmithM
  • 19A. PressleyF
Substitutes
  • 37A. AdomahF
  • 22E. AhuiD
  • 17Courtney ClarkeM
  • 8C. CrewM
  • 29J. FurlongD
  • 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeF
  • 31Tom WoosterG
Coach: Lee Grant

Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Walsall

Fleetwood Town

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
  • L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026

Walsall

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fleetwood Town144551818017
3Walsall135712112+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall

  • 3 March 2026Walsall 0–1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 13 September 2025Fleetwood Town 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
  • 28 January 2025Fleetwood Town 2–0 WalsallLeague Two
  • 1 October 2024Walsall 2–6 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
  • 9 March 2019Walsall 2–0 Fleetwood TownLeague One
  • 17 November 2018Fleetwood Town 0–0 WalsallLeague One

Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Walsall

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Walsall

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pressley90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fleetwood Town and Walsall drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fleetwood Town at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ronan Coughlan 61' for Fleetwood Town, Aaron Pressley 82' for Walsall. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fleetwood Town a 12.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.1% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.9%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For Walsall the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 23.0% going in: 27.3% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.9%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.