Fleetwood Town
vs
Walsall
League Two prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Walsall
The model makes it 37% Fleetwood Town, 31% draw, 32% Walsall — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.25, Walsall 1.08.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
Fleetwood Town
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
- W2-0Shrewsbury5 September 2026
- D1-1Oldham1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grimsby29 August 2026
Walsall
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Crewe1 September 2026
- W3-2Accrington Stanley29 August 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Walsall
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Walsall
- A. Pressley4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.17 for Walsall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.08 for Walsall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.46 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Walsall rate 0.48 and 1.87.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Walsall, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 5.5% chance of the title and Walsall 13.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.08 for Walsall. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.87 for Walsall.