Miedz Legnica
vs
Nieciecza
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Miedz Legnica 1–0 Nieciecza
The model makes it 38% Miedz Legnica, 28% draw, 34% Nieciecza — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Miedz Legnica 1.37, Nieciecza 1.27.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Miedz Legnica are 5th on 17 points from 11 games; Nieciecza are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Miedz Legnica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Stal Mielec.
- Nieciecza are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Unia Skierniewice.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2025, ended Miedz Legnica 1–4 Nieciecza.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Miedz Legnica at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza
Miedz Legnica
- W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
- L2-3Stal Rzeszów19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk13 September 2026
- D1-1Chrobry Głogów5 September 2026
Nieciecza
- D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026
- W1-0Odra Opole19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Mielec14 September 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 August 2026
What these results say
- Miedz Legnica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Miedz Legnica
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
Nieciecza
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza
- 19 May 2025Miedz Legnica 1–4 NiecieczaI Liga
- 9 November 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 18 December 2023Miedz Legnica 2–2 NiecieczaI Liga
- 29 July 2023Nieciecza 1–4 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 8 May 2021Nieciecza 0–2 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 15 November 2020Miedz Legnica 2–3 NiecieczaI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Miedz Legnica carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.46 for Nieciecza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.27 for Nieciecza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Miedz Legnica rate 0.55 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nieciecza rate 0.70 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Miedz Legnica a 5% chance of the title and Nieciecza 19.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Miedz Legnica the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Miedz Legnica against 1.27 for Nieciecza. Miedz Legnica's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.53 for Nieciecza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Miedz Legnica at home · Nieciecza away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Miedz Legnica 11, Nieciecza 10.
Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Nieciecza have let in 2 there.
Nieciecza score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Miedz Legnica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Miedz Legnica
- at Puszcza Niepołomice6 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs ŁKS Łódź21 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Polonia Bytom28 Nov · I Ligawin 49%
- at Pogoń Siedlce5 Dec · I Ligawin 36%
Nieciecza
- vs Chrobry Głogów7 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
- at Podbeskidzie21 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
- vs Stal Rzeszów28 Nov · I Ligawin 64%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.