Lechia Gdansk
vs
Unia Skierniewice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Lechia Gdansk 2–0 Unia Skierniewice
The model makes it 66% Lechia Gdansk, 20% draw, 14% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 2.40, Unia Skierniewice 0.86.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Lechia Gdansk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lechia Gdansk are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 11 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Lechia Gdansk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Stal Rzeszów.
- Unia Skierniewice are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Warta Poznań.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lechia Gdansk at 66% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice
Lechia Gdansk
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
- W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026
Unia Skierniewice
- L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
What these results say
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lechia Gdansk
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
Unia Skierniewice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
Lechia Gdansk carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.15 for Unia Skierniewice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.86 for Unia Skierniewice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lechia Gdansk rate 0.77 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Unia Skierniewice rate 0.47 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lechia Gdansk a 26.3% chance of the title and Unia Skierniewice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk against 0.86 for Unia Skierniewice. Lechia Gdansk's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.92 for Unia Skierniewice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lechia Gdansk at home · Unia Skierniewice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Lechia Gdansk 10, Unia Skierniewice 11.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Lechia Gdansk have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lechia Gdansk
- at Polonia Bytom8 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Odra Opole21 Nov · I Ligawin 60%
- at ŁKS Łódź28 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
Unia Skierniewice
- at Odra Opole6 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce21 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- at Chrobry Głogów28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
- vs ŁKS Łódź5 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.