Lechia Gdansk
vs
Arka Gdynia
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia
The model makes it 45% Lechia Gdansk, 27% draw, 28% Arka Gdynia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 1.88, Arka Gdynia 1.21.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Lechia Gdansk are 8th on 13 points from 9 games; Arka Gdynia are 12th on 11 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Lechia Gdansk have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 7-1 win at home to Stal Mielec.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Last 6 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia Gdansk.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lechia Gdansk at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
- W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce21 August 2026
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
- D1-1Polonia Bytom30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Miedz Legnica23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
- 27 February 2026Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 24 August 2025Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
- 19 May 2024Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 24 November 2023Arka Gdynia 1–0 Lechia GdanskI Liga
- 31 May 2020Lechia Gdansk 4–3 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
- 20 October 2019Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lechia Gdansk carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.44 for Arka Gdynia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.21 for Arka Gdynia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lechia Gdansk rate 0.77 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arka Gdynia rate 0.66 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lechia Gdansk a 25% chance of the title and Arka Gdynia 8.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk against 1.21 for Arka Gdynia. Lechia Gdansk's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.5 for Arka Gdynia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lechia Gdansk at home · Arka Gdynia away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Lechia Gdansk 9, Arka Gdynia 9.
Lechia Gdansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lechia Gdansk
- at Puszcza Niepołomice24 Oct · I Ligawin 40%
- vs Unia Skierniewice31 Oct · I Ligawin 59%
- at Polonia Bytom7 Nov · I Ligawin 42%
- vs Odra Opole21 Nov · I Ligawin 52%
Arka Gdynia
- vs Nieciecza24 Oct · I Ligawin 41%
- at Chrobry Głogów3 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Podbeskidzie7 Nov · I Ligawin 50%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.