Plymouth
vs
Burton Albion
League One prediction
Our model says: Plymouth 2–1 Burton Albion
The model makes it 48% Plymouth, 26% draw, 26% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Plymouth 2.06, Burton Albion 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 48% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Plymouth vs Burton Albion
Plymouth
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Doncaster5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leicester1 September 2026
- W2-0Bradford29 August 2026
Burton Albion
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
- D2-2Cambridge United5 September 2026
- W4-1AFC Wimbledon2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Notts County29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Burton Albion
- 4 January 2026Plymouth 3–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 27 September 2025Burton Albion 0–4 PlymouthLeague One
- 29 April 2023Plymouth 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
- 19 November 2022Burton Albion 2–2 PlymouthLeague One
- 9 April 2022Burton Albion 0–0 PlymouthLeague One
- 9 October 2021Plymouth 2–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
Leading scorers: Plymouth and Burton Albion
Plymouth
- A. Pepple3 goals
- O. Irow3 goals
Burton Albion
No player in League One's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plymouth carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.24 for Burton Albion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Plymouth and 1.19 for Burton Albion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plymouth rate 0.73 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burton Albion rate 0.55 and 1.85.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plymouth a 31.1% chance of the title and Burton Albion 1.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plymouth against 1.19 for Burton Albion. Plymouth's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.85 for Burton Albion.