26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Plymouth vs Burton Albion League One prediction & result

Home Park, Plymouth
Referee: S. Mather
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Plymouth, 26% draw, 26% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Plymouth0%Draw6%Burton Albion94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Curtis Tilt
45'
🔁Kain Adomout: Matthew Dennis
Will Evans
56'
🔁Will Evansout: Caleb Watts
59'
🔁Matthew Sorinolaout: Joe Edwards
59'
Ronan Curtis
60'
65'
Matthew Dennis
🔁Ronan Curtisout: Xavier Amaechi
70'
🔁Tyreeq Bakinsonout: Bradley Ibrahim
70'
70'
⚽Jack Armer
🔁Julio Pleguezueloout: Mathias Ross Jensen
74'
84'
Sulyman Krubally
Mathias Ross Jensen
86'
87'
🔁Kgagelo Chaukeout: Sulyman Krubally

Match stats — Plymouth vs Burton Albion

57%Possession43%
13Shots10
3On target3
3Corners4

Line-ups

Plymouth 4-4-2
  • 1M. MahoneyG
  • 45W. HardingD
  • 15A. MitchellD
  • 5Julio PleguezueloD
  • 29M. SorinolaD
  • 11R. CurtisM
  • 19T. BakinsonM
  • 7H. WhiteM
  • 14O. IrowM
  • 9W. EvansF
  • 27A. PeppleF
Substitutes
  • 10X. AmaechiF
  • 8J. EdwardsD
  • 23B. IbrahimM
  • 3Jack MackenzieD
  • 2M. RossD
  • 21James StorerG
  • 17C. WattsM
Coach: Tom Cleverley
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
  • 34C. AddaiG
  • 26F. DelapD
  • 12G. EvansD
  • 16C. TiltD
  • 17R. Borges RodriguesM
  • 14W. CollarM
  • 4K. ChaukeM
  • 3J. ArmerM
  • 18Caylon VickersM
  • 8C. WebsterM
  • 29Kain AdomF
Substitutes
  • 24Harvey AraujoD
  • 19M. DennisF
  • 27K. DudekG
  • 41Sulyman KruballyM
  • 40Zac ScuttF
  • 20J. SrahaD
  • 23Emeka AdeileD
Coach: G. Bowyer

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Plymouth147252119+223
15Burton Albion144551821-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

  • 4 January 2026Plymouth 3–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 27 September 2025Burton Albion 0–4 PlymouthLeague One
  • 29 April 2023Plymouth 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 19 November 2022Burton Albion 2–2 PlymouthLeague One
  • 9 April 2022Burton Albion 0–0 PlymouthLeague One

Leading scorers: Plymouth and Burton Albion

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Burton Albion

No player in League One's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burton Albion won 1–0 at Plymouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Plymouth at 48% and given a win for Burton Albion 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Jack Armer 70' for Burton Albion.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.