Celta de Vigo II vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 1-1 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Celta de Vigo II, 30% draw, 39% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Sabadell
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 3K. RibesD
- 4S. M. NdiayeD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 2P. GavianM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 5H. BurcioM
- 23G. MillerM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 32H. LopezM
- 18Joel LópezD
- 6P. MeixusD
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
- 1Diego FuoliG
- 14Óscar SanzD
- 6Edgar GonzálezD
- 27José Luis CatalàD
- 7Ton RipollM
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 20UrriM
- 8Pere PonsM
- 4Miki CodinaM
- 12Gastón VallesF
- 23J. PriegoF
- 2PipaD
- 11Javi LópezM
- 10Ángel BaenaM
- 24Eneko AguilarM
- 9N. ObolskiyF
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 21Alain RibeiroM
- 25Marc VidalG
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Sabadell
Celta de Vigo II
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
Sabadell
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Sabadell
- 21 January 2024Sabadell 2–1 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 28 October 2023Celta de Vigo II 4–2 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Sabadell
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin61
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta de Vigo II and Sabadell drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabadell at 39% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alvaro·Marin Sesma 6' for Celta de Vigo II, Edgar Gonzalez 23' for Sabadell.
How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Celta de Vigo II win31%▼ −7
- Draw30%=
- Sabadell win39%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.