Milton Keynes Dons vs Bromley League One prediction & result
Final score: Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 Bromley.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Milton Keynes Dons, 27% draw, 25% Bromley — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Milton Keynes Dons at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Milton Keynes Dons vs Bromley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23W. DennisG
- 21M. EkpitetaD
- 5C. GoodeD
- 32J. SandersD
- 24R. WintleM
- 17S. SilveraM
- 22I. FullahM
- 8A. GilbeyM
- 20Elijah Xavier CampbellM
- 9S. NombeF
- 10A. CollinsF
- 4D. BarlaserM
- 15C. BramallD
- 7D. CrowleyM
- 2G. JonesD
- 13C. PatersonF
- 26B. WilesF
- 51S. StaceyG
- 1G. SmithG
- 12Marcus Lemar IfillD
- 5O. SowunmiD
- 45A. JacksonD
- 21Kamari Antonio GrantD
- 16W. HondermarckM
- 22K. ContehM
- 6G. SavilleM
- 11M. PinnockM
- 20V. AdeboyejoF
- 9M. CheekF
- 19M. MillerF
- 8B. ThompsonM
- 18C. WhitelyM
- 28J. McKiernanM
- 31O. MasonG
- 14N. KabambaF
- 10J. JonesF
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Milton Keynes Dons vs Bromley
- 11 April 2026Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 BromleyLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Bromley 2–1 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
- 8 February 2025Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 BromleyLeague Two
- 28 September 2024Bromley 1–1 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
Leading scorers: Milton Keynes Dons and Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
GoalsAssists
- A. Collins133
Bromley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Milton Keynes Dons a 32.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 28.7% after a win, 35.2% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.7%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
For Bromley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 87.1% going in: 82.7% after a win, 86.6% after a draw, 89.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.5%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.