Mansfield Town
vs
Leyton Orient
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 41% Mansfield Town, 29% draw, 30% Leyton Orient — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.59, Leyton Orient 1.21.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Mansfield Town vs Leyton Orient
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mansfield Town at 41% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mansfield Town vs Leyton Orient
Mansfield Town
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
- L0-5away to Reading2 September 2026
- W5-2Luton30 August 2026
Leyton Orient
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bromley1 September 2026
- L1-3Barnsley29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Leyton Orient
- 14 April 2026Leyton Orient 0–0 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 23 August 2025Mansfield Town 4–1 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 8 April 2025Mansfield Town 2–3 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 11 February 2025Leyton Orient 3–0 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 25 April 2023Mansfield Town 1–2 Leyton OrientLeague Two
- 13 August 2022Leyton Orient 1–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Leyton Orient
Mansfield Town
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Leyton Orient
- Y. Akhamrich3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mansfield Town carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.26 for Leyton Orient. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Mansfield Town and 1.21 for Leyton Orient. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mansfield Town rate 0.57 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leyton Orient rate 0.56 and 1.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leyton Orient, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mansfield Town a 0% chance of the title and Leyton Orient 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Mansfield Town against 1.21 for Leyton Orient. Mansfield Town's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.83 for Leyton Orient.