Notts County
vs
Blackpool
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 38% Notts County, 30% draw, 32% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.35, Blackpool 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Notts County vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Notts County at 38% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Blackpool
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
- W2-1Burton Albion29 August 2026
Blackpool
- L2-4Plymouth19 September 2026
- D2-2Bromley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Reading5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnsley2 September 2026
- W4-0Peterborough29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Blackpool
- 29 April 2017Notts County 1–0 BlackpoolLeague Two
- 12 November 2016Blackpool 4–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Notts County and Blackpool
Notts County
- O. Cooper3 goals
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Notts County carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.23 for Blackpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Notts County and 1.15 for Blackpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Notts County rate 0.47 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackpool rate 0.55 and 1.89.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Blackpool, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.2% chance of the title and Blackpool 0.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Notts County the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Notts County against 1.15 for Blackpool. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.89 for Blackpool.