Round of 16 · 28 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction

Shell Energy Stadium

Our model says: Houston Dynamo 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes

The model makes it 43% Houston Dynamo, 28% draw, 29% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.47, San Jose Earthquakes 1.11.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Houston Dynamo's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and San Jose Earthquakes's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.

Key facts

  • Houston Dynamo are 5th on 51 points from 34 games; San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 52 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
  • Houston Dynamo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to St. Louis City.
  • San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Minnesota United FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo.

More MLS predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

52%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Houston Dynamo win Draw San Jose Earthquakes win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Houston Dynamo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Houston Dynamo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer

  • L0-1St. Louis City8 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Portland Timbers2 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Seattle Sounders29 October 2026
  • D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3away to Minnesota United FC8 November 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake31 October 2026
  • D2-2Colorado Rapids29 October 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
  • D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 13 September 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2026Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 24 August 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 3–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 18 July 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 31 March 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes (fourth, with Houston Dynamo fifth), while our numbers lean to Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo rate 0.53 in attack and 1.15 in defence, San Jose Earthquakes 0.66 and 1.51 (lower is better in defence), so Houston Dynamo have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Houston Dynamo San Jose Earthquakes
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.51
1.47 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.11 for San Jose Earthquakes. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.51 for San Jose Earthquakes.

Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.44 for San Jose Earthquakes. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Houston Dynamo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Houston Dynamo to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Houston Dynamo's ratings take away 1 point and San Jose Earthquakes's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Houston Dynamo's ratings41%−1
  5. San Jose Earthquakes's ratings43%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Houston DynamoSan Jose Earthquakes
34Matches34
14W 9D 11LRecord14W 10D 10L
43 1.3 per gameGoals scored57 1.7 per game
43 1.3 per gameGoals conceded51 1.5 per game
13 of 34Clean sheets7 of 34
10 of 34Failed to score5 of 34
3 of 3Penalties scored4 of 7
66 1.9 per gameYellow cards76 2.2 per game
7Red cards2
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 20×

Houston Dynamo at home · San Jose Earthquakes away

17Played17
8W 5D 4LRecord7W 5D 5L
19–15Goals for – against27–25
7 of 17Clean sheets3 of 17

League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Major League Soccer matches this season: Houston Dynamo 34, San Jose Earthquakes 34.

Houston Dynamo scored 1712899
San Jose Earthquakes conceded 7879315

Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 7 there.

San Jose Earthquakes scored 14799712
Houston Dynamo conceded 5764413

San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (14 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.