Rennes vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Rennes 4-1 Auxerre.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rennes, 24% draw, 24% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rennes vs Auxerre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30B. SambaG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 21V. RongierM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 9E. LepaulF
- 90I. SoumaréF
- 95P. FrankowskiM
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 10L. BlasF
- 6D. CisséM
- 22B. DiaF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 23M. DiopG
- 46A. PiedfortD
- 4A. TuanzebeD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 27L. SyM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 5K. DanoisM
- 22F. OppegårdM
- 21R. FaivreM
- 10D. NamasoM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 34L. DioubateM
- 17P. EkwahM
- 47Youssef KhouddaF
- 3R. Labeau LascaryF
- 35E. LegrosD
- 1P. NardiG
- 77Aristide ZossouM
- 45Salimou DanfakhaD
- 20S. DiomandéD
Form going into Rennes vs Auxerre
Rennes
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
Auxerre
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026
What these results say
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Auxerre
- 22 February 2026Auxerre 0–3 RennesLigue 1
- 19 October 2025Rennes 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 6 April 2025Rennes 0–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 3 November 2024Auxerre 4–0 RennesLigue 1
- 11 March 2023Auxerre 0–0 RennesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Rennes and Auxerre
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rennes beat Auxerre 4–1. The model had made a win for Rennes its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Esteban Lepaul 15' for Rennes, Cameron Archer 25' for Auxerre, Adrien Thomasson 53' for Rennes, Boulaye Dia 90+2' for Rennes, Boulaye Dia 90+4' for Rennes. On expected goals it finished 2.61–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rennes a 18.2% chance to finish in the top four: 20.1% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Auxerre the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.4% going in: 21.9% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 31.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rennes v Auxerre has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Rennes's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Rennes win52%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Auxerre win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.