Rennes
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Rennes 2–1 Auxerre
The model makes it 47% Rennes, 26% draw, 27% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Rennes 2.18, Auxerre 1.32.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rennes vs Auxerre
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 47% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rennes vs Auxerre
Rennes
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
Auxerre
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Lens22 August 2026
What these results say
- Rennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rennes had three goals or more.
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Auxerre
- 22 February 2026Auxerre 0–3 RennesLigue 1
- 19 October 2025Rennes 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 6 April 2025Rennes 0–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 3 November 2024Auxerre 4–0 RennesLigue 1
- 11 March 2023Auxerre 0–0 RennesLigue 1
- 11 September 2022Rennes 5–0 AuxerreLigue 1
Leading scorers: Rennes and Auxerre
Rennes
- E. Lepaul3 goals
Auxerre
- C. Archer3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.68 for Auxerre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Rennes and 1.32 for Auxerre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.09 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auxerre rate 0.84 and 1.19.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Rennes against 1.32 for Auxerre. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.19 for Auxerre.