Parma vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Parma 2-1 Genoa.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Parma, 30% draw, 28% Genoa — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Parma at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Parma vs Genoa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Edoardo CorviG
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 37Mariano TroiloD
- 72Dominik DrobnicD
- 15Enrico DelpratoM
- 4Vincent SierroM
- 16Mandela KeitaM
- 14Emanuele ValeriM
- 76Simone LontaniF
- 19El Bilal TouréF
- 9David RomeroF
- 23Nesta ElphegeF
- 11Pontus AlmqvistF
- 80Giovanni FabbianM
- 27Sascha BritschgiD
- 32Christian OrdoñezM
- 30Giovanni DaffaraG
- 22Simone GhidottiG
- 3Abdoulaye NdiayeD
- 47Abdou-Salam KonateM
- 1Justin BijlowG
- 27Alessandro MarcandalliD
- 5Leo ØstigårdD
- 34Sebastian OtoaD
- 3Kingsley EhizibueM
- 32Morten FrendrupM
- 97Djibril SowM
- 77Mikael EllertssonM
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 8Tommaso BaldanziF
- 18Milutin OsmajićF
- 31David PuczkaD
- 92Stephan El ShaarawyF
- 29Lorenzo ColomboF
- 25Hamed Junior TraorèM
- 9VitinhaF
- 99Franz StolzG
- 39Daniele SommarivaG
- 2Mario MitajD
- 16Cody DramehD
Form going into Parma vs Genoa
Parma
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
- L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026
Genoa
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- Parma did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Parma had two goals or fewer.
- Genoa did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Genoa had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Parma vs Genoa
- 18 January 2026Parma 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 19 October 2025Genoa 0–0 ParmaSerie A
- 12 January 2025Genoa 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 4 November 2024Parma 0–1 GenoaSerie A
- 5 February 2023Parma 2–0 GenoaSerie B
The result against the call
Parma beat Genoa 2–1. The model had made a win for Parma its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Romero 38' for Parma, M. Osmajic 70' for Genoa, P. Almqvist 80' for Parma. On expected goals it finished 0.32–0.76.