Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 1-0 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Monterrey, 28% draw, 35% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monterrey at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Line-ups
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 4V. GuzmanD
- 19A. AcevesD
- 18C. GarzaD
- 8O. TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 10L. OrellanoM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 22L. CardenasG
- 33S. MedinaD
- 21L. ReyesD
- 14E. AguirreM
- 30J. RodriguezM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 32U. DjurdjevicF
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 33G. PioviD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 6E. LiraM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 21G. FernandezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 15R. OrquinD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 60A. Castro
- 7N. IbanezF
- 11C. EbereF
Form going into Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
- 18 March 2026Cruz Azul 1–1 MonterreyCONCACAF Champions League
- 11 March 2026Monterrey 2–3 Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League
- 1 March 2026Monterrey 0–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 26 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 9 March 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Cruz Azul
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos63
- D. Rossi53
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez52
- G. Fernández51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey beat Cruz Azul 1–0. The model had made a win for Monterrey its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: César Garza 7' for Monterrey.
How the call on Monterrey v Cruz Azul has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Monterrey win37%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Cruz Azul win35%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.