Frosinone vs Como Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Frosinone 2-0 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Frosinone, 26% draw, 42% Como — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Frosinone vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Lorenzo PalmisaniG
- 20Anthony OyonoD
- 3Gabriele CalvaniD
- 30Ilario MonterisiD
- 79Gabriele BracagliaD
- 14Giacomo CalòM
- 73Patrizio MasiniM
- 7Farès GhedjemisM
- 10Romano SchmidM
- 17Giorgi KvernadzeM
- 9Antonio RaimondoF
- 2Giorgio CittadiniD
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 24Alessio ZerbinF
- 5Wisdom AmeyD
- 34Anouar El AzzouziM
- 91Sebastiano DesplanchesG
- 12Matteo PisseriG
- 25Kevin AkpogumaD
- 90Enzo Tchato MbiayiD
- 1Jean ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo RamónD
- 99Trevoh ChalobahD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 6Luis MillaM
- 7Lucas Da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10Nico PazM
- 20Martin BaturinaM
- 9Anastasios DouvikasF
- 17Jesús RodriguezF
- 21Samuele RicciM
- 90Moise KeanF
- 16KaikiD
- 5Máximo PerroneM
- 22Mauro VigoritoG
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 53Willy KambwalaD
- 28Ivan SmolčićD
Form going into Frosinone vs Como
Frosinone
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
Como
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Frosinone conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Como went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Como scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Como conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Como
- 4 February 2023Como 0–2 FrosinoneSerie B
- 3 September 2022Frosinone 2–0 ComoSerie B
- 16 February 2022Frosinone 1–2 ComoSerie B
- 17 September 2021Como 0–2 FrosinoneSerie B
- 7 August 2016Frosinone 3–0 ComoCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Como
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò41
- G. Kvernadze33
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
- N. Paz33
- M. Baturina31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Frosinone beat Como 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Como at 42% and given a win for Frosinone 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Calo 14' for Frosinone, G. Kvernadze 45+3' for Frosinone. On expected goals it finished 1.96–2.20.
How the call on Frosinone v Como has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Frosinone win32%▼ −1
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Como win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.