20 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

AC Milan vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time3 – 0

Final score: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% AC Milan, 27% draw, 26% Lecce — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Milan at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Milan99%Draw1%Lecce0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Pulisicassist: S. Pavlovic
14'
46'
🔁N. Stulicout: P. Esteban
58'
D. Veiga
⚽A. Rabiotassist: G. Ramos
61'
🔁A. Saelemaekersout: D. Moreira
70'
🔁C. Pulisicout: R. Loftus-Cheek
70'
70'
🔁J. Monteiroout: A. Fatah
70'
🔁Y. Malehout: O. Ngom
70'
🔁I. Ilicout: M. Kaba
⚽D. Moreira
73'
🔁L. Modricout: Y. Musah
76'
🔁P. Estupinanout: D. Bartesaghi
76'
82'
🔁S. Pierottiout: K. Ndri
🔁S. Chukwuezeout: F. Camarda
89'

Match stats — AC Milan vs Lecce

69%Possession31%
10Shots6
4On target3
2Corners3
1.93xG0.17

Goals against chances

AC Milan3 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lecce0 from 0.17 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 2P. EstupinanM
  • 11C. PulisicF
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 1P. TerraccianoG
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  • 13S. DiawaraD
  • 20O. HutchinsonF
  • 22D. MoreiraF
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 28C. ComottoM
  • 30A. JashariM
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17D. VeigaD
  • 4K. GasparD
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 50S. PierottiM
  • 20I. IlicM
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 29L. CoulibalyF
  • 9N. StulicF
  • 99J. MonteiroF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BleveG
  • 32A. BorbeiG
  • 2A. DembeleD
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 7A. FatahF
  • 8S. FofanaM
  • 11K. NdriF
  • 18G. JeanD
  • 22P. EstebanF
Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

Form going into AC Milan vs Lecce

AC Milan

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026

Lecce

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Monza13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
  • L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026

What these results say

  • AC Milan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AC Milan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lecce conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AC Milan95311811+718
14Lecce93061019-99

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Lecce

  • 18 January 2026AC Milan 1–0 LecceSerie A
  • 23 September 2025AC Milan 3–0 LecceCoppa Italia
  • 29 August 2025Lecce 0–2 AC MilanSerie A
  • 8 March 2025Lecce 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 27 September 2024AC Milan 3–0 LecceSerie A

The full AC Milan vs Lecce record →

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Lecce

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot43
  • A. Cissè40

Lecce

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Milan beat Lecce 3–0. The model had made a win for AC Milan its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Pulisic 14' for AC Milan, A. Rabiot 61' for AC Milan, D. Moreira 73' for AC Milan. On expected goals it finished 1.93–0.17.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.