Juventus vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Juventus 2-0 Atalanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Juventus, 29% draw, 25% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventus vs Atalanta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Guglielmo VicarioG
- 15Pierre KaluluD
- 3Gleison BremerD
- 26Jhon LucumíD
- 31Nicolás GonzálezM
- 22Weston McKennieM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 2Zeki ÇelikM
- 7Francisco ConceiçãoF
- 17Kerim AlajbegovićF
- 9Randal Kolo MuaniF
- 29Pape Matar SarrM
- 8Teun KoopmeinersM
- 11Edon ZhegrovaF
- 27Nick WoltemadeF
- 6Lloyd KellyD
- 23Carlo PinsoglioG
- 40Riccardo RaduG
- 4Federico GattiD
- 24Daniele RuganiD
- 29Marco CarnesecchiG
- 16Raoul BellanovaD
- 31Thomas KristensenD
- 42Giorgio ScalviniD
- 47Lorenzo BernasconiD
- 10Lazar SamardžićM
- 19Franck KessiéM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 17Charles De KetelaereF
- 90Nikola KrstovićF
- 11Jonathan RoweF
- 18Giacomo RaspadoriF
- 70Gianluca GaetanoM
- 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
- 99Eljif ElmasM
- 22Thomas PompeiG
- 57Marco SportielloG
- 23Sead KolašinacD
- 40Relja ObrićD
- 43Jacopo MirraD
Form going into Juventus vs Atalanta
Juventus
All competitions we cover
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Atalanta
- 11 April 2026Atalanta 0–1 JuventusSerie A
- 5 February 2026Atalanta 3–0 JuventusCoppa Italia
- 27 September 2025Juventus 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 16 August 2025Atalanta 1–2 JuventusFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2025Juventus 0–4 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Juventus and Atalanta
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventus beat Atalanta 2–0. The model had made a win for Juventus its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Conceicao 28' for Juventus, Bremer 77' for Juventus. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.61.
How the call on Juventus v Atalanta has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Juventus win46%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Atalanta win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.