20 September 2026, 03:15 UTC

Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Club America 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Club America, 26% draw, 44% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club America4%Draw90%Guadalajara Chivas6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽Bryan Gonzalezassist: Omar Govea
45+2'
⚽Ricardo Marín
50'
Daniel Aguirre
🔁Alan Cervantesout: Erick Sánchez
52'
🔁Álex Zendejasout: Oscar Andres Perea Abonce
52'
57'
🔁Bryan Gonzalezout: Efrain Alvarez
64'
🔁Ricardo Marínout: Ángel Sepúlveda
🔁Raphael Veigaout: Miguel Borja
66'
⚽Miguel Borjaassist: Brian Rodríguez
71'
⚽Miguel Borjaassist: Henry Martin
74'
76'
🔁Santiago Sandovalout: Luis Rey
76'
🔁Richard Ledezmaout: Jonathan Perez
76'
🔁Daniel Aguirreout: Hugo Camberos
84'
Hugo Camberos
🔁Henry Martinout: Carlos Álvarez
86'
🔁Dagoberto Espinozaout: Edwin Cerrillo
87'
Cristian Borja
90'
90'
Fernando González

Match stats — Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas

56%Possession44%
17Shots10
4On target6
4Corners6

Line-ups

Club America 4-2-3-1
  • 30R. CotaG
  • 34D. EspinozaD
  • 2E. LaraD
  • 32M. VazquezD
  • 26C. BorjaD
  • 3I. ReyesM
  • 13A. CervantesM
  • 10A. ZendejasM
  • 23Raphael VeigaM
  • 7B. RodriguezM
  • 9H. MartinF
Substitutes
  • 1L. MalagonG
  • 29R. JuarezD
  • 24F. RossanoD
  • 28E. SanchezM
  • 6E. CerrilloM
  • 8C. AlvarezM
  • 217IcaroM
  • 93Miguel BorjaF
  • 12I. ViolanteF
Coach: Guillermo Almada Alves Jorge
Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. RangelG
  • 23D. AguirreD
  • 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
  • 7L. RomoD
  • 37R. LedezmaM
  • 6O. GoveaM
  • 28F. GonzalezM
  • 5B. GonzalezM
  • 30S. SandovalM
  • 25R. AlvaradoM
  • 17R. MarinF
Substitutes
  • 13O. WhalleyG
  • 19K. CastanedaM
  • 10E. AlvarezF
  • 11B. GutierrezM
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 9A. SepulvedaF
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 18J. PerezM
  • 57J. HernandezF
Coach: Gabriel Milito

Form going into Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas

Club America

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
  • W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
  • W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
  • W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026

Guadalajara Chivas

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
  • W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club America won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club America had three goals or more.
  • Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Guadalajara Chivas won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Club America148423419+1528
3Guadalajara Chivas147522112+926

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas

  • 15 February 2026Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 12 October 2025Club America 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 September 2025Club America 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 13 March 2025Club America 4–0 Guadalajara ChivasCONCACAF Champions League
  • 9 March 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Club AmericaLiga MX

The full Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas record →

Leading scorers: Club America and Guadalajara Chivas

Club America

GoalsAssists

  • H. Martín83
  • M. Borja60
  • B. Rodríguez53

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club America and Guadalajara Chivas drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 44% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Gonzalez 32' for Guadalajara Chivas, Ricardo Marín 45+2' for Guadalajara Chivas, Miguel Borja 71' for Club America, Miguel Borja 74' for Club America.

How the call on Club America v Guadalajara Chivas has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Club America win30%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Guadalajara Chivas win44%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.