Club America
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club America 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas
The model makes it 28% Club America, 25% draw, 47% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Club America 1.53, Guadalajara Chivas 2.36.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Club America wins, grey are draws, red are Guadalajara Chivas wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
Club America
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 15 February 2026Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 12 October 2025Club America 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2025Club America 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 13 March 2025Club America 4–0 Guadalajara ChivasCONCACAF Champions League
- 9 March 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 6 March 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Club AmericaCONCACAF Champions League
Leading scorers: Club America and Guadalajara Chivas
Club America
- H. Martín3 goals1 assists
- B. Rodríguez3 goals
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club America carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.9 for Guadalajara Chivas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Club America and 2.36 for Guadalajara Chivas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 0.83 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guadalajara Chivas rate 1.21 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club America a 15.1% chance of the title and Guadalajara Chivas 28.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Club America against 2.36 for Guadalajara Chivas. Club America's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/1.13 for Guadalajara Chivas.