27 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Brann vs PAOK UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Brann Stadion, Bergen
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Brann 3-2 PAOK.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Brann, 25% draw, 42% PAOK — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brann95%Draw5%PAOK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
Tom Louchet
⚽N. Holmassist: N. Castro
45'
53'
Giannis Michailidis
⚽K. M. Ingasonassist: J. Sorensen
56'
57'
Christos Zafeiris
57'
🔁S. Shoretireout: D. Pelkas
57'
🔁B. Santamariaout: G. Taylor
Niklas Castro
59'
63'
⚽C. Ndiayeassist: D. Pelkas
68'
⚽C. Zafeirisassist: D. Chatsidis
🔁J. Soltvedtout: V. Dragsnes
69'
76'
🔁T. Louchetout: A. Baba
🔁K. M. Ingasonout: U. Mathisen
80'
🔁E. Gudmundssonout: N. Wassberg
80'
80'
🔁C. Ndiayeout: Taison
80'
🔁D. Chatsidisout: A. Mythou
84'
Dimitrios Giannoulis
⚽N. Castro (pen)
86'
Ulrik Mathisen
90+4'
90+4'
Dimitrios Pelkas

Match stats — Brann vs PAOK

6%Possession94%
9On target6
12Corners1

Line-ups

Brann 4-3-3
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 23T. PedersenD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 18J. SorensenM
  • 19E. GudmundssonM
  • 10K. M. IngasonM
  • 29N. HolmF
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 6D. MbackeD
  • 7K. KjartanssonM
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 14U. MathisenF
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 25N. WassbergM
  • 36H. M. HellesoyG
  • 39J. LaegreidF
Coach: Eirik Horneland
PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 13D. GiannoulisM
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamariaM
  • 52D. ChatsidisM
  • 23T. LouchetM
  • 47S. ShoretireF
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 6A. ElustondoD
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 18JogoD
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 22T. AliM
  • 25K. ThymianisD
  • 32G. TaylorD
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
Coach: Alessio Lisci

Form going into Brann vs PAOK

Brann

  • W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026

PAOK

  • W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Brann and PAOK in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
7BrannEliteserien2192103932+729
2PAOKSuper League 15401125+712

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eliteserien · Super League 1

Head-to-head: Brann vs PAOK

  • 20 August 2026PAOK 1–1 BrannUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Brann and PAOK

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals3 assists
  • K. Ingason6 goals2 assists

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists
  • S. Shoretire2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.