Brann
vs
PAOK
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 42% Brann, 22% draw, 36% PAOK — fair odds of 2.38, 4.55 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brann 1.98, PAOK 1.80.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Brann
- W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026
- L2-3Valerenga26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Molde18 July 2026
- W2-1Start12 July 2026
- L1-2Sarpsborg 08 FF29 May 2026
PAOK
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brann | Eliteserien | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 22 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. PAOK has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brann carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.61 for PAOK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Brann L-W-W-L-W; PAOK W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Brann and 1.80 for PAOK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brann rate 0.65 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAOK rate 0.96 and 1.61.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brann the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Brann against 1.8 for PAOK. Brann's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.61 for PAOK.