Motherwell vs SC Freiburg UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Motherwell, 22% draw, 61% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motherwell vs SC Freiburg
Line-ups
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 11A. LowryM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 19I. SaidF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 31J. McConnellG
- 23E. WilsonD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
- 34A. ThomsonD
- 35B. WatsonM
- 1M. BackhausG
- 29P. TreuD
- 28M. GinterD
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 31I. MatanovicF
- 21F. MullerG
- 24J. HuthG
- 17L. KublerD
- 43B. OgbusD
- 30C. GunterD
- 5A. JungD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 27B. YilmazD
- 32V. GrifoM
Form going into Motherwell vs SC Freiburg
Motherwell
- W2-0HJK Helsinki13 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
SC Freiburg
No earlier matches on record this season.
What these results say
- Motherwell went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Motherwell and SC Freiburg in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | Premiership | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Motherwell and SC Freiburg
Motherwell
- A. Lowry2 goals1 assist
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goal2 assists
SC Freiburg
- Y. Suzuki4 goals
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.