Motherwell
vs
SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 17% Motherwell, 22% draw, 61% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Expected goals: Motherwell 0.96, SC Freiburg 2.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motherwell
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
SC Freiburg
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Motherwell | Premiership | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. SC Freiburg has not started the league season yet. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.78 for SC Freiburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Motherwell W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Motherwell and 2.00 for SC Freiburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.53 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Freiburg rate 0.82 and 0.96.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Motherwell against 2 for SC Freiburg. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.96 for SC Freiburg.