FC Nordsjaelland
vs
FC St. Gallen
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 54% FC Nordsjaelland, 18% draw, 28% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.85, 5.56 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 2.80, FC St. Gallen 2.07.
Both teams to score: 82%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Nordsjaelland
- W1-0Randers FC2 August 2026
- D1-1away to AC Horsens26 July 2026
FC St. Gallen
- D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC St. Gallen | Super League | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Nordsjaelland
No league goals recorded yet.
FC St. Gallen
- E. Owusu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Nordsjaelland carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.57 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Nordsjaelland D-W; FC St. Gallen W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 2.07 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.95 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.87 and 1.56.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 82% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (6%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.8 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 2.07 for FC St. Gallen. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.56 for FC St. Gallen.