Panathinaikos
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 3-0 Panetolikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Panathinaikos, 26% draw, 24% Panetolikos — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.22, Panetolikos 1.16.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
Line-ups
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 26I. LouzaM
- 22E. CamaraM
- 20V. TabordaM
- 21A. OunahiM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 9C. DessersF
- 3Georgios Marios KatrisD
- 18S. KontourisM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 14E. Palmer-BrownD
- 28F. PellistriM
- 74E. RastoderF
- 7A. TettehF
- 19T. TsaprasM
- 42K. KangwaM
- 99Y. KucherenkoG
- 35C. MavriasD
- 2G. GranathD
- 49N. StajićD
- 65A. ApostolopoulosD
- 18G. SatsiasM
- 14K. AleksićM
- 44N. ErakovićM
- 10A. BassiM
- 12M. DjenepoM
- 9José Mateo Mejía PiedrahitaF
- 28L. KojićM
- 22Diego EstebanM
- 19A. BregouM
- 20Youssouph BadjiF
- 6M. NakambaM
- 77E. NikolaouM
- 4E. OlssonD
- 90K. OpokuF
- 1Michalis PardalosG
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
Panathinaikos
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
Panetolikos
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
- W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 4 | Panetolikos | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
- 15 March 2026Panathinaikos 0–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 28 September 2025Panetolikos 1–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 1 March 2025Panathinaikos 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 24 November 2024Panetolikos 1–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 7 January 2024Panathinaikos 2–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 16 September 2023Panetolikos 0–5 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Panetolikos
Panathinaikos
- V. Taborda3 goals1 assists
- A. Tetteh2 goals
- K. Kangwa1 goals1 assists
Panetolikos
- G. Granath2 goals
- K. Opoku2 goals
- K. Aleksić1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.22 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.16 for Panetolikos; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Vicente Taborda 14' (Panathinaikos), Azzedine Ounahi 39' (Panathinaikos), Davide Calabria 90' (Panathinaikos).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 1.16 for Panetolikos. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.3 for Panetolikos.