Regular Season - 4 · 13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kalamata vs Volos NFC Super League 1 prediction & result

Peristeri Stadium, Peristeri
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Kalamata 3-1 Volos NFC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Kalamata, 28% draw, 30% Volos NFC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Kalamata 1.80, Volos NFC 1.34.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Kalamata vs Volos NFC

62%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 9%1-0 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kalamata at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalamata96%Draw4%Volos NFC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Matías Nahuel Gonzálezassist: Jorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes
34'
Vasileios Grosdis
37'
Matías Nahuel González
49'
🔁Hatim Es-Saoubiout: Derek Agyakwa
Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
56'
⚽Erik Hamzaassist: Ahmad Mendes Moreira
59'
60'
🔁Vasileios Grosdisout: Dženis Burnić
60'
🔁Gustavo Furtadoout: Francesc Regis
🔁Julián Bonettoout: Argyrios Liatsikouras
65'
Julio Alonso
69'
76'
Hamza Mendyl
77'
🔁Hamza Mendylout: Giorgos Migas
77'
🔁Matías Nahuel Gonzálezout: Giorgos Charalampoglou
🔁Arnór Sigurðssonout: Djibril Diarra
78'
79'
Giorgos Migas
⚽Jovanny Bolivarassist: Ahmad Mendes Moreira
84'
•Jovanny Bolivar
84'
🔁Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiroout: M. Bakayoko
90'
🔁Jovanny Bolivarout: Ilias Chatzitheodoridis
90'
⚽Erik Hamzaassist: Djibril Diarra
90+3'

Match stats — Kalamata vs Volos NFC

46%Possession54%
15Shots11
6On target5
6Corners3

Line-ups

Kalamata 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. GeliosG
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17Julio AlonsoD
  • 24E. HamzaM
  • 23G. PiñeiroM
  • 32J. BonettoM
  • 10A. SigurðssonM
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
  • 9J. BolívarF
Substitutes
  • 18P. PanagiotouD
  • 40N. VasiljevićG
  • 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
  • 19M. J. BakayokoD
  • 99S. AngelisF
  • 6D. DiarraM
  • 26P. GinisG
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 29U. IgnjatovićD
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas
Volos NFC 4-2-3-1
  • 55A. KoşelevG
  • 37H. MendylD
  • 15H. EssaoubiD
  • 4G. KargasD
  • 24K. LykourinosD
  • 8M. CombaM
  • 17V. GrosdisM
  • 10JocaM
  • 21M. GonzálezM
  • 7L. LamprouM
  • 11Gustavo FurtadoF
Substitutes
  • 99D. AgyakwaD
  • 72E. TasiourasD
  • 20Xesc RegisF
  • 89F. RefatllariM
  • 82Athanasios Papathanasiou GerofokoasG
  • 22G. MigasM
  • 91Y. NeyouM
  • 49G. CharalampoglouF
  • 27D. BurnićM
Coach: K. Bratsos

Form going into Kalamata vs Volos NFC

Kalamata

  • D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
  • L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026

Volos NFC

  • D1-1Olympiakos Piraeus5 September 2026
  • D1-1Iraklis 190829 August 2026
  • L0-2away to OFI23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Kalamata411267-14
11Volos NFC402237-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kalamata vs Volos NFC

  • 1 September 2026Volos NFC 2–2 KalamataCup
  • 10 August 2026Volos NFC 0–2 KalamataFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Kalamata and Volos NFC

Kalamata

  • E. Hamza2 goals
  • J. Bolívar2 goals

Volos NFC

  • M. González2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.80 goals for Kalamata and 1.34 for Volos NFC; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Matías Nahuel González 26' (Volos NFC), Erik Hamza 59' (Kalamata), Jovanny Bolivar 84' (Kalamata), Erik Hamza 90' (Kalamata).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kalamata the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Kalamata against 1.34 for Volos NFC. Kalamata's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.42 for Volos NFC.