Regular Season - 4 · 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC Super League 1 prediction & result

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripolis
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 37% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.39, AEK Athens FC 1.50.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

59%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Lovro Majer
21'
⚽Dimitrios Laskaris (OG)
⚽Julián Bartoloassist: Federico Macheda
31'
52'
🔁Kervin Arriagaout: Barnabás Varga
52'
🔁Mijat Gaćinovićout: Aboubakary Koita
Julián Bartolo
54'
🔁Federico Machedaout: Ricardo Viana Filho
74'
🔁Dimitrios Kourbelisout: Giannis Bouzoukis
74'
🔁Kalvin Ketuout: Antonis Papakanellos
81'
88'
🔁Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvadorout: Petros Mantalos
Giannis Kotsiras
90+1'
🔁Julián Bartoloout: Alexandros Tereziou
90+2'

Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

37%Possession63%
13Shots21
5On target3
8Corners5

Line-ups

Asteras Tripolis 3-4-3
  • 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
  • 16F. BrorssonD
  • 74D. LaskarisD
  • 32J. SilvaD
  • 27G. KotsirasM
  • 21D. KourbelisM
  • 10Eder GonzálezM
  • 28Alex MéndezM
  • 7J. BartoloF
  • 9F. MachedaF
  • 11K. KetuF
Substitutes
  • 91T. KakadiarisG
  • 20N. KaltsasF
  • 51Giannis KriarasG
  • 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
  • 19F. OrozcoM
  • 44A. PapakanellosM
  • 80B. PérezM
  • 17A. TereziouF
  • 39RicardinhoF
Coach: G. Antonopoulos
AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44Filipe RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 8M. GaćinovićM
  • 90ZiniF
  • 9L. JovićF
Substitutes
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
  • 41Marios BalamotisG
  • 23João MárioM
  • 15M. TodorskiD
  • 19B. VargaF
  • 21D. VidaD
  • 27M. VitálisM
Coach: M. Nikolić

Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

Asteras Tripolis

  • L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
  • L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026

AEK Athens FC

  • W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
  • W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Asteras Tripolis401327-51
5AEK Athens FC4220112+98

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC

  • 24 January 2026Asteras Tripolis 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 31 August 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 23 February 2025Asteras Tripolis 0–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 9 November 2024AEK Athens FC 3–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 4 February 2024AEK Athens FC 4–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 22 October 2023Asteras Tripolis 0–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC

Asteras Tripolis

  • F. Macheda1 goals1 assists

AEK Athens FC

  • B. Varga4 goals
  • Zini2 goals
  • L. Jović2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.39 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.50 for AEK Athens FC; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Dimitrios Laskaris 21' (AEK Athens FC), Julián Bartolo 31' (Asteras Tripolis).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 1.5 for AEK Athens FC. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.11 for AEK Athens FC.