Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 40% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC
Line-ups
- 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
- 16F. BrorssonD
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 32J. SilvaD
- 27G. KotsirasM
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 10Eder GonzálezM
- 28Alex MéndezM
- 7J. BartoloF
- 9F. MachedaF
- 11K. KetuF
- 91T. KakadiarisG
- 20N. KaltsasF
- 51Giannis KriarasG
- 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaF
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 44A. PapakanellosM
- 80B. PérezM
- 17A. TereziouF
- 39RicardinhoF
- 91A. BrignoliG
- 12L. RotaD
- 2H. MoukoudiD
- 44Filipe RelvasD
- 3S. PiliosD
- 14L. MajerM
- 16K. ArriagaM
- 18R. MarinM
- 8M. GaćinovićM
- 90ZiniF
- 9L. JovićF
- 20P. MantalosM
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
- 41Marios BalamotisG
- 23João MárioM
- 15M. TodorskiD
- 19B. VargaF
- 21D. VidaD
- 27M. VitálisM
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC
Asteras Tripolis
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC
- 24 January 2026Asteras Tripolis 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 31 August 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 23 February 2025Asteras Tripolis 0–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 9 November 2024AEK Athens FC 3–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 4 February 2024AEK Athens FC 4–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda21
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga50
- L. Jović40
- Zini30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AEK Athens FC at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dimitrios Laskaris (own goal) 21' for AEK Athens FC, Julián Bartolo 31' for Asteras Tripolis.
How the call on Asteras Tripolis v AEK Athens FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is AEK Athens FC's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Asteras Tripolis win31%▼ −8
- Draw29%▼ −1
- AEK Athens FC win40%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.