Panathinaikos
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panathinaikos 0–1 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 33% Panathinaikos, 30% draw, 37% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.12, AEK Athens FC 1.24.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to AEK Athens FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Panathinaikos are top on 15 points from 6 games; AEK Athens FC are 2nd on 14 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Olympiakos Piraeus.
- AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to OFI.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Athens FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended AEK Athens FC 2–1 Panathinaikos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
AEK Athens FC
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
- 10 May 2026AEK Athens FC 2–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 3 May 2026Panathinaikos 0–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 18 January 2026AEK Athens FC 4–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 30 November 2025Panathinaikos 2–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 4 May 2025AEK Athens FC 1–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 6 April 2025Panathinaikos 3–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- V. Taborda31
- A. Tetteh30
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga40
- L. Jović40
- Zini20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Panathinaikos carry a model rating of 6.99 against 7.14 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.24 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panathinaikos rate 1.09 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 1.27 and 0.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Panathinaikos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Panathinaikos a 32% chance of the title and AEK Athens FC 46.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 1.24 for AEK Athens FC. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.71 for AEK Athens FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Panathinaikos at home · AEK Athens FC away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PanathinaikosAEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos are 1st after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 6th so far); AEK Athens FC are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Panathinaikos 6, AEK Athens FC 6.
Panathinaikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 2 there.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Panathinaikos
- vs CSKA Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 67%
- at Iraklis 19088 Nov · Super League 1win 48%
AEK Athens FC
- vs Real Madrid4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 39%
- vs Levadiakos8 Nov · Super League 1win 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.