Levadiakos
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Levadiakos 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis
The model makes it 34% Levadiakos, 29% draw, 37% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Levadiakos 1.23, Aris Thessalonikis 1.32.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Levadiakos are 13th on 2 points from 7 games; Aris Thessalonikis are 5th on 10 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Levadiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Volos NFC.
- Aris Thessalonikis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Volos NFC.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Levadiakos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos
- D0-0Volos NFC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Iraklis 190811 October 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kifisia13 September 2026
- L0-2Panetolikos6 September 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
What these results say
- Levadiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Levadiakos failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Levadiakos had two goals or fewer.
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Levadiakos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 2 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 17 May 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 5 April 2026Levadiakos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 25 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 2–2 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 26 October 2025Levadiakos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 16 February 2025Levadiakos 4–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 November 2024Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos
No league goals yet this season.
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano30
- C. Kouamé20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Levadiakos carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.57 for Aris Thessalonikis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Levadiakos and 1.32 for Aris Thessalonikis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levadiakos rate 0.65 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.75 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Levadiakos a 0% chance of the title and Aris Thessalonikis 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Levadiakos against 1.32 for Aris Thessalonikis. Levadiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.31 for Aris Thessalonikis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Levadiakos at home · Aris Thessalonikis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Levadiakos 7, Aris Thessalonikis 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Levadiakos
- at AEK Athens FC8 Nov · Super League 1win 7%
- vs Atromitos22 Nov · Super League 1win 34%
- at OFI29 Nov · Super League 1win 26%
- at Kalamata6 Dec · Super League 1win 23%
Aris Thessalonikis
- vs Panetolikos7 Nov · Super League 1win 45%
- at Asteras Tripolis23 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.