Kifisia
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kifisia 1–0 Aris Thessalonikis
The model makes it 34% Kifisia, 32% draw, 34% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kifisia 1.09, Aris Thessalonikis 1.08.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Kifisia are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; Aris Thessalonikis are 7th on 7 points from 5 games — Super League 1.
- Kifisia have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Atromitos.
- Aris Thessalonikis are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Iraklis 1908.
- Last 4 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 Kifisia.
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Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kifisia at 34% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis
Kifisia
- W2-1away to Atromitos19 September 2026
- D0-0Levadiakos13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos10 September 2026
- L0-2away to OFI6 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC30 August 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
What these results say
- Kifisia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kifisia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kifisia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 22 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 20 September 2025Kifisia 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 27 January 2024Kifisia 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 1 October 2023Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis
Kifisia
- Jorge Pombo2 goals
Aris Thessalonikis
- Fabiano2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kifisia carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.57 for Aris Thessalonikis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Kifisia and 1.08 for Aris Thessalonikis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kifisia rate 0.61 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.70 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aris Thessalonikis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kifisia the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kifisia against 1.08 for Aris Thessalonikis. Kifisia's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.24 for Aris Thessalonikis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kifisia at home · Aris Thessalonikis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Kifisia 5, Aris Thessalonikis 5.
Aris Thessalonikis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Kifisia have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kifisia
- at Iraklis 190824 Oct · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus31 Oct · Super League 1win 22%
- at Volos NFC7 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- at PAOK21 Nov · Super League 1win 15%
Aris Thessalonikis
- vs Atromitos24 Oct · Super League 1win 37%
- at Levadiakos31 Oct · Super League 1win 34%
- vs Panetolikos7 Nov · Super League 1win 40%
- at Asteras Tripolis21 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.