Panetolikos
vs
OFI
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panetolikos 2–1 OFI
The model makes it 37% Panetolikos, 28% draw, 35% OFI — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Panetolikos 1.40, OFI 1.36.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Panetolikos and OFI are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Panetolikos are 8th on 9 points from 6 games; OFI are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Panetolikos are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kifisia.
- OFI have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AEK Athens FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Panetolikos 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended OFI 1–0 Panetolikos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Panetolikos vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panetolikos at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Panetolikos vs OFI
Panetolikos
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
- L1-3PAOK20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
OFI
- L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026
- D2-2Asteras Tripolis20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
- W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
What these results say
- OFI scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs OFI
- 25 January 2026OFI 1–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 18 October 2025Panetolikos 4–2 OFISuper League 1
- 19 January 2025Panetolikos 1–0 OFISuper League 1
- 29 September 2024OFI 1–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 25 September 2024OFI 2–1 PanetolikosCup
- 11 May 2024OFI 1–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panetolikos and OFI
Panetolikos
GoalsAssists
- G. Granath20
- K. Opoku20
OFI
GoalsAssists
- K. Kodro20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Panetolikos carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.57 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Panetolikos and 1.36 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panetolikos rate 0.67 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.81 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFI, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panetolikos the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panetolikos against 1.36 for OFI. Panetolikos's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.44 for OFI.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Panetolikos at home · OFI away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Panetolikos 6, OFI 6.
Panetolikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); OFI have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Panetolikos
- at Aris Thessalonikis7 Nov · Super League 1win 27%
- vs Volos NFC22 Nov · Super League 1win 46%
- at Iraklis 190828 Nov · Super League 1win 25%
OFI
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
- vs Atromitos8 Nov · Super League 1win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.