Panathinaikos
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis
The model makes it 61% Panathinaikos, 24% draw, 15% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.30, Asteras Tripolis 0.62.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Panathinaikos are top on 15 points from 5 games; Asteras Tripolis are 12th on 2 points from 5 games — Super League 1.
- Panathinaikos are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Kalamata.
- Asteras Tripolis have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to OFI.
- Last 6 meetings: Panathinaikos 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–2 Panathinaikos.
All Greek Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
Asteras Tripolis
- D2-2away to OFI20 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos won every one of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
- 22 March 2026Asteras Tripolis 1–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 26 October 2025Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 8 December 2024Asteras Tripolis 0–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 18 August 2024Panathinaikos 0–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 21 January 2024Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 28 September 2023Asteras Tripolis 1–4 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
- V. Taborda3 goals1 assist
- A. Tetteh3 goals
Asteras Tripolis
- F. Macheda2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Panathinaikos carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.46 for Asteras Tripolis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.62 for Asteras Tripolis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panathinaikos rate 1.13 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Asteras Tripolis rate 0.64 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 0.62 for Asteras Tripolis. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.41 for Asteras Tripolis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Panathinaikos at home · Asteras Tripolis away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Panathinaikos 5, Asteras Tripolis 5.
Panathinaikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Asteras Tripolis have let in 1 there.
Asteras Tripolis score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Panathinaikos
- at Kairat Almaty22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 67%
- at Volos NFC24 Oct · Super League 1win 58%
- vs AEK Athens FC31 Oct · Super League 1win 34%
Asteras Tripolis
- vs Levadiakos24 Oct · Super League 1win 37%
- at PAOK31 Oct · Super League 1win 14%
- vs Kalamata7 Nov · Super League 1win 37%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis21 Nov · Super League 1win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.