Panetolikos
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
The model makes it 23% Panetolikos, 31% draw, 46% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 4.35, 3.23 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Panetolikos 0.70, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Panetolikos are 6th on 9 points from 5 games; Olympiakos Piraeus are 5th on 10 points from 5 games — Super League 1.
- Panetolikos have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to PAOK.
- Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Levadiakos.
- Last 6 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Panetolikos.
All Greek Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Panetolikos
- L1-3PAOK20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
- W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
- W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026
What these results say
- Panetolikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 21 February 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 30 November 2025Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 6 January 2025Panetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 15 September 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 28 February 2024Panetolikos 1–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 25 November 2023Olympiakos Piraeus 3–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus
Panetolikos
- G. Granath2 goals
- K. Opoku2 goals
Olympiakos Piraeus
- Jota Silva2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Panetolikos carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.99 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.70 goals for Panetolikos and 1.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panetolikos rate 0.70 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.86 and 0.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Panetolikos against 1.40 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Panetolikos's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.69 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Panetolikos at home · Olympiakos Piraeus away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Panetolikos 5, Olympiakos Piraeus 5.
Panetolikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Panetolikos
- at AEK Athens FC24 Oct · Super League 1win 14%
- vs OFI31 Oct · Super League 1win 36%
- at Aris Thessalonikis7 Nov · Super League 1win 30%
- vs Volos NFC21 Nov · Super League 1win 45%
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs Sparta Praha22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- vs Kalamata24 Oct · Super League 1win 54%
- at Kifisia31 Oct · Super League 1win 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.