9 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Premier Division prediction & result

Tolka Park, Dublin
Referee: P. McLaughlin
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Shelbourne, 28% draw, 20% Sligo Rovers — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shelbourne at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shelbourne99%Draw1%Sligo Rovers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Kellyassist: Ademipo Odubeko
12'
27'
Kaiyne Woolery
Jack Henry-Francis
28'
45+1'
⚽Kaiyne Wooleryassist: Jack Shorrock
⚽Ademipo Odubekoassist: Evan Caffrey
50'
🔁Ademipo Odubekoout: John Martin
52'
⚽John Martinassist: Daniel Kelly
52'
Odhran Casey
55'
⚽Milan Bernhard Mbeng
57'
59'
🔁James McManusout: Daire Patton
59'
🔁Archie Meekisonout: Cian Kavanagh
⚽John Martinassist: Daniel Kelly
59'
Milan Bernhard Mbeng
59'
60'
🔁Ruben Gillespieout: Seb Quirk
🔁Milan Bernhard Mbengout: Marco Untergrabner
64'
🔁Jack Henry-Francisout: Alistair Coote
64'
65'
🔁A. Gabbidonout: Kevin Zefi
🔁James Norrisout: james roche
76'
🔁Daniel Kellyout: Sean Boyd
76'
76'
Luke Young
81'
🔁Kaiyne Wooleryout: Luke Pearce
Sean Moore
85'

Match stats — Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers

54%Possession46%
26Shots9
11On target1
10Corners6
2.6xG0.5

Goals against chances

Shelbourne5 from 2.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sligo Rovers1 from 0.50 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Shelbourne 3-4-3
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 17D. KellyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 25M. MbengM
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 18James Barry NorrisM
  • 22S. MooreF
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 27E. CaffreyF
Substitutes
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 9S. BoydF
  • 14A. CooteM
  • 36W. JarvisM
  • 10J. MartinF
  • 44Daniel RingF
  • 55James RocheD
  • 24M. UntergrabnerD
  • 31C. WalshG
Coach: J. Russell
Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 16C. McHughD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 50Ruben GillespieM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 41K. WooleryF
Substitutes
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 11C. KavanaghF
  • 71D. PattonM
  • 9L. PearceF
  • 4S. QuirkM
  • 77Kevin ZefiF
  • 48Ross Ruane-DaltonM
  • 61Conor CannonD
  • 60Charlie McgarveyG
Coach: D. Purse

Form going into Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers

Shelbourne

Premier Division

  • D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division

  • L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Shelbourne361213115250+249
10Sligo Rovers36510212866-3825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers

  • 27 June 2026Sligo Rovers 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 8 May 2026Shelbourne 0–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 21 March 2026Sligo Rovers 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 17 October 2025Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 2 August 2025Sligo Rovers 0–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 23 May 2025Shelbourne 3–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Sligo Rovers

No player in Premier Division's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 5–1. The model had made a win for Shelbourne its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Daniel Kelly 12' for Shelbourne, Kaiyne Woolery 45+1' for Sligo Rovers, Ademipo Odubeko 50' for Shelbourne, John Martin 52' for Shelbourne, Milan Bernhard Mbeng 57' for Shelbourne, John Martin 59' for Shelbourne. On expected goals it finished 2.60–0.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shelbourne a 17.3% chance to finish in the top four: 23.9% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 5.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 47% / 30% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Shelbourne's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Shelbourne win52%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Sligo Rovers win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.