Shelbourne
vs
Sligo Rovers
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Shelbourne 1–0 Sligo Rovers
The model makes it 47% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 23% Sligo Rovers — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.56, Sligo Rovers 0.75.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 47% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
- W3-2away to Dundalk18 September 2026
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United28 August 2026
Sligo Rovers
- L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026
- L1-3Galway United14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
- D0-0Waterford21 August 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shelbourne | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
- 27 June 2026Sligo Rovers 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 8 May 2026Shelbourne 0–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 21 March 2026Sligo Rovers 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
- 17 October 2025Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 2 August 2025Sligo Rovers 0–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 23 May 2025Shelbourne 3–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
- H. Wood7 goals5 assists
- J. Martin6 goals2 assists
- D. Kelly6 goals1 assists
Sligo Rovers
- C. Kavanagh6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shelbourne carry a model rating of 6.17 against 5.91 for Sligo Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Shelbourne and 0.75 for Sligo Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shelbourne rate 0.48 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sligo Rovers rate 0.34 and 2.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shelbourne the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Shelbourne against 0.75 for Sligo Rovers. Shelbourne's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.34/2.25 for Sligo Rovers.