Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Aldosivi 1-3 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 34% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aldosivi at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23I. ChiccoG
- 4R. GonzálezD
- 2L. SigaliD
- 33N. ZalazarD
- 13B. CufréD
- 10N. GaitánM
- 5N. LinaresM
- 19L. CastroM
- 11B. PalavecinoM
- 8M. GarcíaM
- 9N. CorderoF
- 80L. ChávezM
- 24F. AnsoF
- 25N. BreitenbruchD
- 41Kevin BáezG
- 16B. DadÃnF
- 27T. FernándezF
- 21M. GodoyF
- 7N. GuzmánF
- 17F. LaurelliD
- 12T. AyalaG
- 20U. GiménezD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuárezD
- 23E. GiménezM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
- 10Jhon RenteríaF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 21J. MavillaF
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 33G. DíazM
- 5M. GarcíaM
- 11G. GonzálezF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 7P. MagnínF
- 17A. NadruzM
- 77N. PasquiniD
Form going into Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Huracan4 October 2026
- W1-0Atletico Tucuman21 September 2026
- L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors30 August 2026
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
What these results say
- Aldosivi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
- 22 March 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 September 2025Sarmiento Junin 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 March 2025Aldosivi 2–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 September 2022Aldosivi 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 October 2021Sarmiento Junin 3–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 March 2018Sarmiento Junin 1–0 AldosiviPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin won 3–1 at Aldosivi. The model had leaned towards a win for Aldosivi at 37% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 34%. The goals: Junior Marabel 18' for Sarmiento Junin, Lucas Castro 20' for Aldosivi, Julian Mavilla 86' for Sarmiento Junin, Jonathan Herrera 89' for Sarmiento Junin. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aldosivi a 77.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 65.8% after a win, 82.9% after a draw, 89.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.3%, 11.4 points higher than before the match.
For Sarmiento Junin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.1% going in: 40.1% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 15 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Aldosivi's most recent league matches and Sarmiento Junin's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.