Fluminense
vs
Coritiba
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 2–1 Coritiba
The model makes it 52% Fluminense, 26% draw, 22% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Fluminense 2.22, Coritiba 1.05.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Coritiba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 52% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Coritiba
Fluminense
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
Coritiba
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Coritiba
- 4 April 2026Coritiba 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 26 November 2023Fluminense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 24 July 2023Coritiba 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 August 2022Fluminense 5–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 1 May 2022Coritiba 3–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 January 2021Coritiba 3–3 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Coritiba
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
- Hulk7 goals4 assists
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.62 for Coritiba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Fluminense and 1.05 for Coritiba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fluminense rate 1.00 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coritiba rate 0.88 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fluminense a 0.3% chance of the title and Coritiba 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.05 for Coritiba. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.41 for Coritiba.