9 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Fluminense vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Fluminense, 22% draw, 19% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fluminense at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fluminense99%Draw1%Coritiba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
🔁Jacyout: Rodrigo Moledo
⚽Jefferson David Savarino Quinteroassist: Hulk
30'
⚽Jefferson David Savarino Quinteroassist: Thiago Silva
49'
62'
🔁Breno Lopesout: Fabinho
62'
🔁Pedro Rochaout: Paulo Roberto
🔁Paulo Henrique Chagas de Limaout: Luciano Acosta
62'
⚽Jefferson David Savarino Quinteroassist: Kevin Serna
65'
74'
🔁Nicolas Fonsecaout: Tinga
74'
🔁Fabricio Bustosout: Vini Paulista
🔁Hércules Pereira do Nascimentoout: Otávio Henrique Passos Santos
79'
🔁Claudio Rodrigues Gomesout: Samuel Xavier Brito
79'
🔁Jefferson David Savarino Quinteroout: Rodrigo Castillo
79'
86'
Bruno Melo
🔁Hulkout: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado
89'
⚽Luciano Acostaassist: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado
90+3'

Match stats — Fluminense vs Coritiba

68%Possession32%
22Shots8
10On target0
3Corners2

Line-ups

Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FábioG
  • 23GugaD
  • 3Thiago SilvaD
  • 29J. MillánD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 35HérculesM
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 90K. SernaM
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 11J. SavarinoM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 19R. CastilloF
  • 32L. AcostaM
  • 22J. FreytesD
  • 46Julio FidelisD
  • 94OtávioM
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 44JemmesD
  • 41Ruan Sales OliveiraM
  • 2Samuel XavierD
Coach: Marcão
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 22Pedro RangelG
  • 14F. BustosD
  • 55JacyD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 6Felipe JonatanD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19S. GómezM
  • 5N. FonsecaM
  • 10JosuéM
  • 77Breno LopesM
  • 32Pedro RochaF
Substitutes
  • 28FabinhoF
  • 78Renato MarquesF
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
  • 3MaiconD
  • 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
  • 66Rodrigo GeladoD
  • 39GustavoM
  • 13KeillerG
  • 18Paulo RobertoM
Coach: Fernando Seabra

Form going into Fluminense vs Coritiba

Fluminense

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
  • W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
  • W2-1Remo22 August 2026

Coritiba

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
  • D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
  • L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
  • W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
  • Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
  • Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fluminense3416995542+1357
12Coritiba34119144051-1142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Coritiba

  • 4 April 2026Coritiba 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
  • 26 November 2023Fluminense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
  • 24 July 2023Coritiba 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
  • 20 August 2022Fluminense 5–2 CoritibaSerie A
  • 1 May 2022Coritiba 3–2 FluminenseSerie A
  • 20 January 2021Coritiba 3–3 FluminenseSerie A

The full Fluminense vs Coritiba record →

Leading scorers: Fluminense and Coritiba

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Coritiba

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Rocha91
  • Breno Lopes81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fluminense beat Coritiba 4–0. The model had made a win for Fluminense its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 30' for Fluminense, Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 49' for Fluminense, Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 65' for Fluminense, Luciano Acosta 90+3' for Fluminense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fluminense a 57.2% chance to finish in the top four: 62.8% after a win, 47.9% after a draw, 41.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.8%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fluminense v Coritiba has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Fluminense's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Fluminense win59%▲ +7
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Coritiba win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.